Mitigating the Likelihood Paradox in Flow-based OOD Detection: An Entropic Perspective

Deep generative models offer a natural foundation for out-of-distribution (OOD) detection, yet prior work has shown that their assigned likelihoods are notoriously unreliable indicators for in- vs out-of-distribution data. In this paper, we address this problem by leveraging the diffeomorphic and mass-preserving properties of continuous normalising flows. Our analysis shows that OOD samples are mapped to noise samples that are highly atypical under the noise prior in ways not captured by the likelihood. Based on this observation, we propose a new method -- Signal in the Noise (SITN) -- for OOD detection on the single-sample level. SITN requires no access to OOD data, incurs minimal computational overhead, and provides strict control of false positive rates. Comprehensive evaluations through standard benchmarks and synthetic perturbations highlight the method's effectiveness and the absence of the complexity bias inherent to likelihood-based methods.

We address the problem of out-of-distribution (OOD) detection for target observations embedded in a subspace of the high dimensional data space. Using continuous normalizing flows (CNFs), we propose a Lagrangian sub-flow (LSF) framework designed to isolate and estimate the density for the relevant components in the representation and using the remaining components as context. Through experimentation with models for speech synthesis, we show that CNFs, similarly to other deep generative models (DGMs), are susceptible to the "likelihood paradox", where high likelihood is erroneously assigned to OOD samples. This is attributed to the inductive bias of DGMs that prioritize low-level structural details over high-level semantic coherence. To mitigate this phenomenon, we propose a number of geometric diagnostic signals based on the velocity field over the sub-flow trajectory. Based on these signals, we design metrics for the challenging task of zero-shot phoneme-level mispronunciation detection. Finally, we demonstrate the superiority of these metrics compared to likelihood-based methods on a real-world mispronunciation detection benchmark.

Recent white-box OOD detection methods for LLMs -- including CED, RAUQ, and WildGuard confidence scores -- appear effective, but we show they are structurally confounded by sequence length (|r| >= 0.61) and collapse to near-chance under length-matched evaluation. Even raw attention entropy (mean H(alpha) across heads and layers), a natural baseline we include for completeness, shows the same confound. The confound stems from attention's Theta(log T) dependence on input length. To identify genuine OOD signals after deconfounding, we propose a two-pathway framework: embeddings capture what text is about (effective for topic shifts), while the processing trajectory -- hidden-state evolution across layers -- captures how the model processes input. The relative power of each pathway varies along a vocabulary-transparency spectrum: embedding methods excel on vocabulary-distinctive OOD, while trajectory features detect covert-intent inputs that share vocabulary with normal text (0.721 avg AUROC; Jailbreak: 0.850). Three evidence lines support this framework: (1) a crossover between k-NN and trajectory scoring across 6 tasks, where each pathway wins on different OOD types; (2) a per-layer analysis showing that layer-0 k-NN signal is almost entirely a length artifact (Jailbreak: 0.759 raw -> 0.389 matched) -- processing constructs genuine OOD signal from near-chance embeddings; and (3) circuit attribution showing adversarial tasks engage attention circuits more than semantic tasks (p = 0.022; Jailbreak patching p < 0.001), with partial cross-model replication. Code release upon publication.