PETS: A Principled Framework Towards Optimal Trajectory Allocation for Efficient Test-Time Self-Consistency

Self-consistency (SC) is a widely used test-time inference technique for improving performance in chain-of-thought reasoning. It consists of generating multiple responses, or ``samples", from a large language model (LLM) and selecting the most frequent answer. This procedure can naturally be viewed as a majority vote or empirical mode estimation. Despite its effectiveness, self-consistency is prohibitively expensive at scale when naively applied to datasets, and it lacks a unified theoretical understanding of sample efficiency and scaling behavior. In this paper, we provide the first comprehensive analysis of SC's scaling behavior and its variants, drawing on mode estimation and voting theory. We derive and empirically validate power law scaling for self-consistency across datasets, and analyze the sample efficiency for fixed-allocation and dynamic-allocation sampling schemes. From these insights, we introduce Blend-ASC, a novel variant of self-consistency that dynamically allocates samples to questions during inference, achieving state-of-the-art sample efficiency. Our approach uses 4.8 times fewer samples than vanilla SC on average, outperforming both fixed- and dynamic-allocation SC baselines, thereby demonstrating the superiority of our approach in terms of efficiency. In contrast to existing variants, we note that Blend-ASC is hyperparameter-free, supports batching, and can fit any budget of samples, ensuring it can be easily applied to any self-consistency application.

Test-time scaling with parallel branches is widely adopted to improve performance on challenging reasoning tasks. The predominant approach, repeated sampling, draws branches independently from a single policy, which can produce redundant attempts and thereby limit the gains from additional inference compute. To address this limitation, we propose Planned Test-Time Scaling (PTTS), which replaces independent sampling with a coordinated joint policy: a planner generates a solution outline for each branch, steering the branches toward distinct reasoning paths, and an executor produces a full solution conditioned on each outline. Formally, we show that PTTS strictly generalizes repeated sampling and, in a stylized setting, provably promotes coverage of complementary reasoning modes and yields better pass@k scaling. We instantiate PTTS on top of strong reasoning models, keeping them fixed as executors while replacing repeated sampling with PTTS inference to further enhance test-time scaling. Concretely, we develop two variants: PTTS-ZS prompts a model to jointly generate outlines for all branches in a single autoregressive pass, while PTTS-RL directly optimizes the planner against the pass@k reward using truncated execution rollouts for efficient training and a sharper reward signal. Across five mathematical reasoning benchmarks with Qwen3-1.7B and 4B, PTTS-ZS improves pass@64 over repeated sampling by up to 6.7 points, while PTTS-RL further increases the gain to up to 13.4 points. Further analysis indicates that broader coverage of distinct reasoning paths contributes to these gains. Overall, PTTS provides a general framework for improving test-time scaling by coordinating reasoning branches, with zero-shot and trainable instantiations that yield substantial performance gains.

Self-consistency samples many reasoning trajectories and aggregates their final answers, treating the LLM as a black box that returns one answer per trajectory. Yet the final answer of each trajectory is sampled from a softmax vector that is available from the model's log-probabilities. We refer to this as the grey-box setting in which each trajectory reveals this answer distribution rather than a single draw from it. We formulate efficient inference in this setting as sequential mode identification with distribution-valued observations: sample trajectories one at a time and stop as soon as the LLM's modal answer is identified at a prescribed confidence level. We characterize the asymptotic stopping rate of mode identification with distribution-valued observations exactly and show that it is never worse than the black-box rate. We then propose the ASC-D algorithm, a betting stopping rule that attains this asymptotic stopping rate. On MMLU-Redux, ASC-D uses $46.4$--$95.6\%$ fewer trajectories than answer-only adaptive self-consistency baselines and achieves the highest fixed-budget correct-certification rate across three open-source models.