A Basin-Selection Perspective on Grokking via Singular Learning Theory

In this work, we study grokking in a simple, analytically tractable setting whose rich phenomenology allows us to disentangle the effects of initialization, signal strength, weight decay, sample size, and input dimension. These factors can produce superficially similar learning curves through distinct mechanisms, complicating their interpretation. Our analysis distinguishes early fitting through nuisance features, core feature learning, and delayed generalization. We identify sharp conditions under which grokking provably occurs and derive analytic asymptotic expressions for the lengths of the generalization plateaus. Our results also characterize regimes of early generalization and failure to reach a prescribed test accuracy target. We show that the interpolation edge constitutes a distinct dynamical regime, where vanishing spectral gaps separate core learning from generalization, helping clarify the role of proximity to interpolation in existing accounts of grokking. The resulting picture is analogous to fast and slow phases in chemical kinetics and suggests that the lazy-to-rich transition discussed in the literature may reflect a similar separation of dynamical time scales. Our theoretical results are faithfully supported by extensive experiments.

Delayed generalization (\ie~grokking) refers to the phenomenon in which a neural network fits its training data early in training but only begins to generalize after a prolonged delay, often through an abrupt transition. Despite extensive empirical study, its underlying mechanism remains poorly understood. In this work, we first theoretically characterize a shell--core topological configuration of the reachable solution space induced by Adam's optimization dynamics with weight-shrinkage regularization, supported by empirical evidence. This optimization-induced topological configuration gives rise to grokking. In model's parameter space, random initialization solutions concentrate on a thin outer spherical shell, enclosing another spherical shell of memorization solutions, which in turn contains a core corresponding to the generalization solutions. Leveraging stopping-time theory, we then analyze the geometry of this topological configuration and the solution transition time at which optimization trajectories escape the memorization manifold and first reach the boundary of the generalization manifold. Our theoretical analysis derives grokking scaling laws for the learning rate, batch size, and $\ell_2$ regularization coefficient, which are further validated through experiments and shown to recover results from prior literature.

A recent line of work recasts the post-memorization phase of grokking as constrained optimization: once a network interpolates the training set, weight decay drives a slow drift along the zero-loss manifold toward lower norm. In the language of dynamical systems, this is a fast-slow system in which the interpolation manifold plays the role of a slow manifold. We ask a question that this framing makes natural but the existing literature does not address: is the sharp generalization transition a loss of normal hyperbolicity of that manifold: a fold- or bifurcation-like event in which a normal restoring direction goes flat? Or does the manifold stay uniformly attracting while generalization happens by smooth drift? We propose a simple, optimizer-agnostic diagnostic: the smallest nonzero singular value $σ_{\min}^{+}(\mathbf J)$ of the residual Jacobian, which, for the squared loss, equals the slowest normal restoring rate of the manifold. On a two-layer ReLU network trained to grok modular addition under squared loss, $σ_{\min}^{+}(\mathbf J)$ does not collapse at the transition; it is near zero only before memorization and attains its largest values during the transition. The result holds across five seeds, and the six smallest singular values behave identically; there is no subspace-local collapse either. This is preliminary evidence against the bifurcation hypothesis and in favor of the smooth-contraction picture. We are explicit that a single-setting, gradual-transition experiment under Adam optimizer does not prove the absence of a bifurcation; it constrains where one could hide.