Quantifying Conversational Reliability of Large Language Models under Multi-Turn Interaction

Large language models (LLMs) excel on static benchmarks, but their performance across multi-turn conversations, which better reflect real-world usage, remains understudied. Addressing this gap is critical in high-stakes settings like healthcare, where patients and clinicians are turning to LLM chatbots to address their medical inquiries. Here, we introduce the "stick-or-switch" (SoS) framework, which partitions a question-answer space into multiple sequential presentations to model two safety-centric behaviors: conviction (i.e., sticking to a correct answer selection or abstention against incorrect suggestions) and flexibility (i.e., switching to a correct suggestion when it is introduced). Evaluating 17 LLMs across three clinical benchmarks, we observe a pervasive conversation tax, where partitioning an answer-space into sequential presentations reduces end-to-end accuracy and abstention against incorrect suggestions by an average of up to 30%, reaching 65% in certain models. We also observe blind switching, where models transition an initial abstention to incorrect and correct suggestions at near-identical rates reaching 50%. Finally, we show that increasing model scale mitigates some of these conversational inefficacies while exacerbating others, such as a higher propensity to adopt an incorrect suggestion from an initial abstention. Together our findings demonstrate that the general proficiency captured by static benchmarks do not translate over multi-turn dialogues.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly applied in high-stakes domains such as finance, healthcare, and education, where reliable multi-turn interactions with users are essential. However, existing work on confidence estimation and calibration, a major approach to building trustworthy LLM systems, largely focuses on single-turn settings and overlooks the risks and potential of multi-turn conversations. In this work, we introduce the task of multi-turn calibration to reframe calibration from a static property into a dynamic challenge central to reliable multi-turn conversation, where calibrating model confidence at each turn conditioned on the conversation history is required. We first reveal the risks of this setting: using Expected Calibration Error at turn T (ECE@T), a new metric that tracks calibration dynamics over turns, we show that user feedback (e.g., persuasion) can degrade multi-turn calibration. To address this, we propose MTCal, which minimises ECE@T via a surrogate calibration target, and further leverage calibrated confidence in ConfChat, a decoding strategy that improves both factuality and consistency of the model response in multi-turn interactions. Extensive experiments demonstrate that MT-Cal achieves outstanding and consistent performance in multi-turn calibration, and ConfChat preserves and even enhances model performance in multi-turn interactions. Our results mark multi-turn calibration as one missing link for scaling LLM calibration toward safe, reliable, and real-world use.

Large language models (LLMs) increasingly mediate how people access and reason with information, yet factual reliability is usually evaluated one judgment at a time. We introduce graded belief stability, a relational measure of how well a belief persists within an LLM's broader belief system. Unlike individual belief probability, it asks whether support for a claim persists when that claim is considered alongside the model's other epistemic commitments. We operationalize this idea with a Direct Conditional estimator that uses internal model representations to estimate conditional belief probabilities. Across 12 LLMs and three domains, lower-stability beliefs exhibit greater mean behavioral movement under conversational challenge in 83.3% of model-domain settings after matching on individual belief probability. Graded belief stability therefore extends reliability assessment beyond how strongly an LLM supports a claim to how robustly that belief is supported within its broader system of beliefs.