Modeling Grammatical Hypothesis Testing in Young Learners: A Sequence-Based Learning Analytics Study of Morphosyntactic Reasoning in an Interactive Game

Modeling the latent, multi-step reasoning processes of learners is a core challenge for adaptive tutoring systems, which often rely on simple right/wrong answers rather than understanding how students think. Instantiated here for grammatical reasoning, this study introduces a diagnostic framework that makes students' step-by-step problem-solving visible by analyzing their action sequences in an interactive learning game. The framework computes five interpretable strategy dimensions (e.g., systematic error correction, random guessing), estimates coordination demand from task structure and behavioral patterns, and classifies reasoning into four distinct states. Analyzing 36,234 interactions from 234 students working on 42 morphosyntactic exercises, we found that reasoning strategies vary primarily by context rather than stable traits (intraclass correlation = 0.14), and students show high persistence in unproductive states; specifically, 74.6% of failures driven by high coordination demand (rather than simple knowledge gaps) are followed by another failure without intervention. Our early warning model predicts validation success with strong accuracy (AUC = 0.826 using strategy patterns alone; 0.902 with additional sequential context) while avoiding circular reliance on current error counts. These findings demonstrate that making latent reasoning processes visible enables earlier, more targeted scaffolding that responds to how students are thinking rather than simply whether they succeed. While demonstrated in language learning, the framework provides a generalizable, interpretable architecture for diagnosing complex, structured reasoning in any domain.

This study evaluates the pedagogical viability of LLM-generated English as a Foreign Language (EFL) learning content. Utilising log data from Japanese junior high school students practicing on a grammar drilling application, we analysed how different question modalities impact student performance and whether theoretical localised CEFR difficulty tiers accurately predict empirical task difficulty. Results reveal a clear performance hierarchy: multiple-choice questions carried the lowest cognitive load, cloze tasks posed the greatest barrier to active recall, and drag-and-drop exercises incurred the heaviest time penalties. Furthermore, learner data validated the CEFR-J grammar framework, showing a steady decline in accuracy and increased response times as proficiency levels advanced. These findings demonstrate that LLMs can successfully generate learning content, while highlighting the need for developers to strategically sequence question modalities to transition learners from passive recognition to active linguistic production.

Evaluating the grammatical competence of second language (L2) learners is essential both for providing targeted feedback and for assessing proficiency. To achieve this, we propose a novel framework leveraging the English Grammar Profile (EGP), a taxonomy of grammatical constructs mapped to the proficiency levels of the Common European Framework of Reference (CEFR), to detect learners' attempts at grammatical constructs and classify them as successful or unsuccessful. This detection can then be used to provide fine-grained feedback. Moreover, the grammatical constructs are used as predictors of proficiency assessment by using automatically detected attempts as predictors of holistic CEFR proficiency. For the selection of grammatical constructs derived from the EGP, rule-based and LLM-based classifiers are compared. We show that LLMs outperform rule-based methods on semantically and pragmatically nuanced constructs, while rule-based approaches remain competitive for constructs that rely purely on morphological or syntactic features and do not require semantic interpretation. For proficiency assessment, we evaluate both rule-based and hybrid pipelines and show that a hybrid approach combining a rule-based pre-filter with an LLM consistently yields the strongest performance. Since our framework operates on pairs of original learner sentences and their corrected counterparts, we also evaluate a fully automated pipeline using automatic grammatical error correction. This pipeline closely approaches the performance of semi-automated systems based on manual corrections, particularly for the detection of successful attempts at grammatical constructs. Overall, our framework emphasises learners' successful attempts in addition to unsuccessful ones, enabling positive, formative feedback and providing actionable insights into grammatical development.