Mini-Batch Covariance, Diffusion Limits, and Oracle Complexity in Stochastic Gradient Descent: A Sampling-Design Perspective

For stochastic gradient descent (SGD) with a constant stepsize $α$, the invariant law of the iterates, centered at a minimizer, describes the behavior of the algorithm over long time horizons. In the strongly convex case, this invariant law has the familiar $\sqrtα$ scaling and a Gaussian limit as $α\downarrow 0$. We show that this behavior changes fundamentally for convex objectives $H$ with flat minima and (sub)quadratic tails. More specifically, we study SGD with Markovian noise generated by a contractive driving chain. For every sufficiently small constant stepsize $α$, we prove existence, uniqueness, and geometric convergence to an augmented invariant law in a Wasserstein distance induced by an $α$-dependent metric. When the minimizer $x_\star$ has local flatness exponent $m\ge2$, meaning that $\nabla^2 H(x)\asymp \lVert x-x_\star\rVert^{m-2} I_d$ as $x\to x_\star$, we obtain a contraction bound with factor $1-cα^{m-1}$, where $c>0$ is a constant. This recovers the factor $1-cα$ in the quadratic case $m=2$. We then analyze the small-stepsize scaling limit. We show that the invariant law concentrates on the scale $α^{1/m}$ and that the rescaled iterates converge weakly to the stationary distribution of the stochastic differential equation $dY_t=-h_0(Y_t)\,dt+Σ^{1/2}\,dB_t ,$ where $h_0$ is the limiting drift at the minimizer and $Σ$ denotes the asymptotic covariance. This recovers the Gaussian limit when $m=2$ and gives generally non-Gaussian stationary limits in the flat case $m>2$. Finally, we give corresponding results for coordinate-separable objectives with unequal flatness exponents.

Temporal dependence can separate the Gaussian approximation of stochastic gradient descent from its stationary moments. For unmodified least-squares SGD, we construct a design with standard Gaussian marginals whose stationary error has every positive moment infinite. Independent observations with the same marginals instead give finite stationary variance. Both regimes retain a Gaussian small-step limit. Our general theory establishes pathwise contraction from a finite second design moment, then uses score cancellation and localization to obtain stationary Gaussian and Ornstein--Uhlenbeck limits. Independent Gaussian regression errors yield an exact conditional Gaussian law and total-variation convergence under the same design integrability. Stronger design conditions identify a positive first-order total-variation constant and a deterministic covariance correction with $o(a)$ error. A scalar coverage expansion translates this correction into its inference consequence. Experiments examine distributional error, coverage, and calibration with dependent scores. Together, these results establish precise probability-law approximation beyond moment-based stationary analysis.

Uniform noise-moment bounds exclude stochastic gradients whose variability increases with the iterate. We study ordinary, single-sample stochastic gradient descent for smooth, lower-bounded, possibly nonconvex objectives under distance-dependent conditional moments. Under second moments alone, a direct descent--displacement argument yields $T^{-1/3}$ expected average squared-gradient stationarity with a horizon-dependent stepsize. An explicit oracle-complexity corollary matches the known smooth Blum--Gladyshev (BG-0) lower bound, including the $Lb_2Δ^3\varepsilon^{-6}$ and $LΔσ^2\varepsilon^{-4}$ stochastic terms, where $Δ$ is the initial objective gap and $σ^2+b_2\|x-x_1\|^2$ bounds the variance. Thus unchanged SGD attains the minimax stochastic complexity in this second-moment class. For $p>2$, predictable localization and a Hilbert-space Fuk--Nagaev inequality yield a high-probability bound separating logarithmic variance and polynomial rare-shock contributions. The localization radius is derived from the recursion: no bounded-iterate assumption, clipping, normalization, momentum, or increasing batch size is needed. We also give increasing-confidence rates, an objective-gap-growth refinement recovering root-$T$ stationarity, and stochastic $L^p$-Lipschitz examples. The broad BG-0 optimality statement is distinguished from the smaller mean-square-smooth class, in which additional oracle structure permits faster algorithms.