Market valuations for professional athletes is a difficult problem, given the amount of variability in performance and location from year to year. In the National Basketball Association (NBA), a straightforward way to address this problem is to build a tabular data set and use supervised machine learning to predict a player's salary based on the player's performance in the previous year. For younger players, whose contracts are mostly built on draft position, this approach works well, however it can fail for veterans or those whose salaries are on the high tail of the distribution. In this paper, we show that building a knowledge graph with on and off court data, embedding that graph in a vector space, and including that vector in the tabular data allows the supervised learning to better understand the landscape of factors that affect salary. We compare several graph embedding algorithms and show that such a process is vital to NBA salary prediction.
Figures & tables
Fig. 1 : Schema of the Heterogeneous NBA Knowledge Graph. The graph connects PlayerSeason anchor nodes (center) to diverse entities including Team , Agent , Award , and Injury . Temporal edges (e.g., Won_Previously , Has_Injury_History ) are strictly masked by the admissibility function A(e,s) to prevent look-ahead bias.
Fig. 2 : Tri-State Evaluation on Eligible Outliers. (a) vs. Weak Baseline: Static embeddings provide a favorable rescue–misguidance trade-off. (b) vs. Strong Baseline: Dynamic architectures incur a “Generalization Tax,” reflecting sensitivity to historical networks.
Feature Set
Global RMSE ↓
Global R2↑
Cold-Start ↑
RF
XGB
RF
XGB
R2 (XGB)
Baseline (+Meta)
0.618
0.598
0.717
0.735
0.535
RotatE + Stats
0.654
0.668
0.683
0.670
-0.014
Node2Vec + Stats
0.659
0.665
0.678
0.672
-0.004
V2-Full MG + Stats
0.687
0.695
0.650
0.642
-0.047
V2-Full SG + Stats
0.689
0.702
0.648
0.635
-0.047
TABLE I : Global Predictive Performance. Models ranked by Random Forest (RF) RMSE. Baseline (+Meta) represents the Explicit-ID Upper Bound. The Cold-Start column exclusively evaluates new entrants, demonstrating the collapse of graph models in structural vacuums ( ↓ : lower is better, ↑ : higher is better).
Baseline Context
Graph Model
Top Feature
Cliff’s δ
p -value
Weak (Stats+Time)
Node2Vec
round_pick
-0.34
<0.001
Node2Vec
overall_pick
-0.31
0.001
RotatE
round_pick
-0.26
0.003
V2-Ind
TS%_calc
-0.26
<0.001
V2-Trans
overall_pick
-0.28
<0.001
Strong (+Meta)
RotatE
draft_year
-0.41
<0.001
TABLE II : Top Profiling Traits separating Rescue vs. Misguidance Cohorts ( p≤0.10,∣δ∣≥0.25 ). Positive δ indicates the trait is significantly higher in successfully rescued players; negative indicates higher in misguided players.
Baseline
Player (Case)
Y^base
Y^graph
ΔE
Weak
F. VanVleet (Rescue)
$7.47M
$17.4M
+$9.97M
Chris Paul (Misguide)
$13.7M
$23.1M
-$9.43M
Strong
F. VanVleet (Rescue)
$8.08M
$17.4M
+$9.37M
Chris Paul (Misguide)
$14.7M
$23.1M
-$8.36M
TABLE III : Deterministically selected micro-level corrections for RotatE . ΔE=∣Y−Y^base∣−∣Y−Y^graph∣ .
Graph Model
Weak Baseline (Stats + Time)
Strong Baseline (+ Meta IDs)
Max Rescue ( ΔE )
Max Misguide ( ΔE )
Max Rescue ( ΔE )
Max Misguide ( ΔE )
RotatE
VanVleet (+10.0)
Paul (-9.4)
VanVleet (+9.4)
Paul (-8.4)
Node2Vec
Oubre Jr. (+5.2)
Quickley (-5.1)
White (+4.6)
Reid (-3.6)
V1
Middleton (+12.1)
Bane (-22.2)
Middleton (+11.7)
Bane (-20.7)
V2-Ind
Beasley (+7.5)
Antetokounmpo (-11.5)
Beasley (+7.5)
Antetokounmpo (-12.2)
V2-Trans
Zubac (+10.0)
Bane (-20.6)
Zubac (+9.8)
Bane (-19.1)
TABLE IV : Model-centric representative cases selected deterministically from the eligible-outlier pool (2024 season). We report the maximum rescue ( ΔE>0 ) and misguidance ( ΔE<0 ) cases, with ΔE=∣Y−Y^base∣−∣Y−Y^graph∣ . All values are in $M.
Accurate salary prediction is critical for bridging the information gap between employers and job seekers in modern labor markets. Existing approaches predominantly yield a single point estimate and treat job attributes such as location, occupation, and industry as independent categorical features, ignoring both the inherent uncertainty and multi-modality of real-world compensation data and the rich hierarchical and semantic-similarity relationships that govern pay norms. In this paper we propose GAT-MDN, a unified framework that addresses both limitations simultaneously. For each of the three attribute domains we construct a domain-specific graph whose edges encode (i) hierarchical parent-child containment and (ii) weighted similarity links derived from a pre-trained Sentence-Transformer. Parallel Graph Attention Networks (GATs) with edge-feature-aware attention learn rich, context-sensitive node representations from these multi-relational graphs. A priority-based hierarchical selection module then assembles a composite feature vector that gracefully handles missing or coarse attributes, and a Mixture Density Network (MDN) head maps this vector to the parameters of a Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), yielding a full conditional salary distribution. Extensive experiments on a real-world Dutch job-posting dataset of over 1 million records demonstrate that GAT-MDN significantly outperforms a non-graph MLP-MDN baseline in both Negative Log-Likelihood (NLL) and Mean Squared Error (MSE).
Zhipei Qin, Mohammad Shokri, N. van Weeren +1
Leiden Institute of Advanced Computer Science (LIACS) · Randstad N.V.
In recent years, transductive knowledge graph embedding models have been applied to tasks such as link prediction and query answering. Although knowledge graphs often contain rich numerical attributes, most embedding models neglect them, limiting their ability to represent real-world knowledge graphs with diverse information. In this work, we propose a neural regression model (LitEm) that enables transductive knowledge graph embedding models to predict numerical attributes within knowledge graphs. Experimental results demonstrate that LitEm achieves the best or second-best results on most attributes across FB15K-237, YAGO15K, DB15K, and Mutagenesis. Furthermore, we propose a co-training framework that jointly trains state-of-the-art transductive knowledge graph embedding models with LitEm, which improves link prediction performance mainly for bilinear models and simultaneously enables them to predict numerical attributes. In addition, the literal-awareness evaluation demonstrates that co-training helps models to encode and exploit attribute information in a "literal-aware'' manner, suggesting that the observed gains are not merely due to additional parameters. We publicly release our implementation at https://github.com/dice-group/dice-embeddings.
Rupesh Sapkota, Louis Mozart Kamdem Teyou, Moshood Yekini +2
Data Science Group, Heinz Nixdorf Institute, Paderborn University, Germany
We present a method for finding hierarchy-aware embeddings of knowledge graphs (KGs) using graph neural networks (GNNs) enriched with a semantic loss derived from underlying ontologies. This method yields embeddings that better reflect domain knowledge. To demonstrate their utility, we predict and interpret the effects of gene deletions in the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae and learn box embeddings for KGs in the absence of a prediction task. We further show how box embeddings can serve as the basis for evaluating KG revisions. Our yeast KG is constructed from community databases and ontology terms. Low-dimensional box embeddings combined with GNNs are used to predict cell growth for double gene knockouts. Over 10-fold cross validation, these predictions have a mean R2scoreof~0.360, significantly higher than baseline comparisons, demonstrating that high-level qualitative knowledge is informative about experimental outcomes. Incorporating semantic loss terms in the training of the models improves their predictive performance (R2=0.377) by aligning embeddings with ontology structure. This shows that class hierarchies from ontologies can be exploited for quantitative prediction. We also test the trained models on triple gene knockouts, showing they generalise to data beyond those seen in training. Additionally, by identifying co-occurring relations in the yeast KG important for the cell-growth predictions, we construct hypotheses about interacting traits in yeast. A biological experiment validates one such finding, revealing an association between inositol utilisation and osmotic stress resistance, highlighting the model's potential to guide biological discovery.
Filip Kronström, Alexander H. Gower, Daniel Brunnsåker +2
Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Chalmers University of Technology and University of Gothenburg, Sweden · Department of Life Sciences, Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden · Department of Industrial Biotechnology, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden +1