Divide and Predict: An Architecture for Input Space Partitioning and Enhanced Accuracy

Accurate model evaluation in machine learning depends critically on how datasets are split into training and testing subsets. Standard random splitting assumes that both partitions share the same underlying distribution, an assumption often violated in datasets with class imbalance, natural clustering, or spatial autocorrelation. This paper investigates the role of statistical similarity in train-test splitting and its consequences for AutoML model evaluation. Five established strategies are compared across fifteen UCI benchmark datasets: random splitting, stratified sampling, Kennard-Stone, Duplex, and SPXY. Similarity is assessed using chi-square, Kolmogorov-Smirnov, and Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) tests. Geometry-based methods consistently produce near-zero MMD scores, introducing instability into downstream performance estimates. The proposed Optimised-Distribution method treats similarity as an explicit optimisation objective and achieves the highest mean MMD similarity, 89.0%, across all strategies evaluated.

Most data-mixing methods assume the corpus has already been partitioned into groups, and the choice of those groups determines what a mixer can express. Existing labels, including provenance, topic or format taxonomies, and flat embedding clusters, commit to one semantic axis at one granularity; changing the resolution rebuilds the labels. We argue the bottleneck is the label system, not the mixer, and provide a hierarchical one. HERMES is a data-derived labeling substrate: a Learned Semantic Transform followed by 3-stage residual vector quantization annotates each document once into a coarse-to-fine code whose prefix length controls granularity up to approximately 130k cells. At coarse granularity HERMES sits at a plateau with KMeans-family methods on standard clustering metrics, so the contribution is the substrate, not the clusterer. On 1B-parameter, 25B-token pre-training, the hierarchy exposes an interaction fixed-granularity pipelines cannot test: at one prefix length, a combined Stage-2 rule contrast, equal-subbucket coverage versus size-proportional within-bucket quality top-30%, lifts a 16-task capability macro-average by +0.0253; at the next finer level, the same rule loses its measurable edge as candidate pools contract approximately 5x. HERMES reframes data mixture design from choosing among fixed label sets to navigating a reusable, data-derived granularity hierarchy.

Performance evaluation in AI systems commonly assumes that random dataset splits produce independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) subsets. We show that this assumption often breaks down in spatiotemporally correlated domains such as aerial surveillance, precision agriculture, and medical imaging, leading to two systematic failures: data leakage, where correlated samples span training and validation splits and inflate performance estimates, and hidden stratification, where errors on minority subpopulations are obscured by aggregate metrics. To address these issues, we propose a unified evaluation and training framework for spatially correlated data. We introduce Structure-Aware Stratified Partitioning (SASP), which constructs validation splits that reduce spatiotemporal leakage while preserving meaningful class balance, and Curriculum Distributionally Robust Optimization (CDRO), a curriculum-based relaxation of distributionally robust training that stabilizes optimization under these stricter splits. Across multiple benchmarks, this combination yields consistently improved generalization, more reliable confidence calibration, and exposes failure modes that remain hidden under conventional random-split evaluation.