Hindsight Credit Assignment for Long-Horizon LLM Agents

Group-based reinforcement learning (RL) has advanced large language models (LLMs) and is increasingly extending to agentic tasks, where sparse terminal rewards make step-level credit assignment essential. Existing methods assign credit from what follows an action in sampled rollouts, but do not explicitly capture its retrospective relation to the realized outcome. Hindsight credit assignment (HCA) instead attributes credit through the ratio of hindsight to behavior-policy probabilities, but estimating the hindsight distribution requires an auxiliary model or an extra pass. To address this estimation bottleneck, we propose GraphHCA, a model-free realization of HCA that eliminates explicit hindsight-distribution estimation. For terminal-goal tasks with deterministic transitions, Bayes' rule reduces the hindsight ratio to a ratio of behavior-policy success probabilities at consecutive states. Taking logs yields a state-wise success potential, whose increment across a transition provides step-level credit. GraphHCA estimates this potential from pooled rollouts through a discounted recursion on the induced transition graph, which admits a unique fixed point on any directed graph. The resulting step-level signal is combined with the trajectory-level advantage, requiring neither a learned hindsight model nor an extra forward pass and recovering GRPO when the step-level weight is zero. Among all compared baselines, GraphHCA achieves state-of-the-art results on ALFWorld and WebShop at both LLM scales, and on Sokoban with a vision-language agent. For example, on ALFWorld it improves overall success rate by up to 24.6 points over GRPO and by up to 4.7 points over the strongest step-level baseline.

Reinforcement learning (RL) for large language model (LLM) agents remains challenging in long-horizon tasks with sparse outcome rewards, where assigning credit to individual actions is difficult. Methods such as GRPO assign the same trajectory-level advantage to all actions, while critic-based methods require learning an additional value function that can be costly and unstable. We introduce LLM Value Function RL (LVRL), which uses the pretrained knowledge and in-context learning ability of an LLM to estimate policy-aware state values without finetuning a separate critic. LVRL conditions the value model on group context and calibrates its predictions using known values at the initial and terminal states, enabling step-level credit assignment from estimated value differences. We further extend this idea to learning from an expert policy through on-policy distillation (OPD), introducing LLM Value Function OPD (LVOPD), which focuses teacher supervision on actions associated with decreases in estimated value. We evaluate our approach across diverse agentic benchmarks: AppWorld, BabyAI, and SWE-bench Verified. Across policy scales (4B to 32B), LVRL consistently and substantially outperforms both GRPO and PPO. On AppWorld and SWE-bench Verified, LVRL yields absolute improvements of up to 13.6 and 8.6 percentage points over GRPO. Notably, on tasks requiring extended exploration like BabyAI, LVRL bridges the gap from total failure to 75.0% success. Furthermore, LVOPD yields consistent improvements over standard distillation baselines on AppWorld. Finally, Monte-Carlo analysis confirms that our frozen critic accurately identifies semantic pitfalls and recoveries, proving that LVRL extracts robust, policy-aware step-level credit from sparse terminal outcomes.

Training LLMs as interactive agents for multi-turn decision-making remains challenging, particularly in long-horizon tasks with sparse and delayed rewards, where agents must execute extended sequences of actions before receiving meaningful feedback. Most existing reinforcement learning (RL) approaches model LLM agents as flat policies operating at a single time scale, selecting one action at each turn. In sparse-reward settings, such flat policies must propagate credit across the entire trajectory without explicit temporal abstraction, which often leads to unstable optimization and inefficient credit assignment. We propose HiPER, a novel Hierarchical Plan-Execute RL framework that explicitly separates high-level planning from low-level execution. HiPER factorizes the policy into a high-level planner that proposes subgoals and a low-level executor that carries them out over multiple action steps. To align optimization with this structure, we introduce a key technique called hierarchical advantage estimation (HAE), which carefully assigns credit at both the planning and execution levels. By aggregating returns over the execution of each subgoal and coordinating updates across the two levels, HAE provides an unbiased gradient estimator and provably reduces variance compared to flat generalized advantage estimation. Empirically, HiPER achieves state-of-the-art performance on challenging interactive benchmarks, reaching 97.4% success on ALFWorld and 83.3% on WebShop with Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct (+6.6% and +8.3% over the best prior method), with especially large gains on long-horizon tasks requiring multiple dependent subtasks. These results highlight the importance of explicit hierarchical decomposition for scalable RL training of multi-turn LLM agents.