Hindsight-Anchored Policy Optimization: Learning Through Hindsight with Thompson Sampling-Inspired Adaptive Gating

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) has emerged as a powerful paradigm for eliciting long-chain reasoning in large language models. However, existing methods based on Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) rely on a binary outcome reward, which induces two structural failure modes: Zero-Advantage Collapse, in which all rollouts in a group share the same outcome and the gradient vanishes, and Hallucinated Certainty, in which the model becomes increasingly confident on incorrect rollouts late in training. We address both modes by densifying the reward with intrinsic signals computed entirely from the policy's own conditional probabilities, and propose ISPO (Intrinsic Signal Policy Optimization, which combines a sequence-level signal measuring how informative the thinking trajectory is for the final answer, with a token-level directional reward whose hallucinated-certainty hinge penalizes confidently-wrong predictions at critical decision tokens. Across three base models and five mathematical reasoning benchmarks, ISPO consistently outperforms competitive baselines, with the largest gains on the hardest benchmarks where zero-advantage collapse is most frequent, and training-dynamics diagnostics confirm that both failure modes are decreased.

Reinforcement Learning (RL) has become a key driver for enhancing the long chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, prevalent methods like GRPO often fail when task difficulty exceeds model capacity, leading to reward sparsity and inefficient training. Prior work attempts to mitigate this with off-policy data, but such methods often induce severe distributional mismatches that destabilize policy updates. In this work, we identify a core issue underlying these failures, which we term low training affinity, and introduce Affinity, the first quantitative metric for monitoring the compatibility between external guidance and the model's intrinsic policy. To address this, we propose HINT, an adaptive framework designed to enhance reasoning capabilities while explicitly preserving high Affinity. First, instead of revealing partial answers, HINT supplies Meta-Hints, which act as abstract cognitive scaffolding to guide the model in articulating solutions independently. Second, to ensure stability, we integrate Affinity-Aware Policy Optimization (AAPO), which dynamically modulates the learning objective based on the Affinity. Extensive experiments across diverse benchmarks demonstrate that HINT consistently outperforms strong baselines, while exhibiting superior stability and robust generalization to out-of-distribution tasks. Code is available at https://github.com/ViviqwerAsd/HINT.

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has become a promising paradigm for scaling reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, the sparsity of binary verifier rewards often leads to low efficiency and optimization instability. To stabilize training, existing methods typically impose token-level constraints relative to a reference policy. We identify that such constraints penalize deviations indiscriminately; this can flip verifier-determined direction when the policy attempts to outperform the reference, thereby suppressing gains. To resolve this, we propose One-Way Policy Optimization (OWPO), a method based on the principle of decoupling optimization direction from update magnitude. In OWPO, the verifier dictates the update direction, while the reference policy serves only to adjust the magnitude. Specifically, OWPO applies asymmetric reweighting: it performs Accelerated Alignment for inferior deviations (where the policy lags behind the reference) and Gain Locking for superior deviations (where the policy surpasses the reference). Furthermore, by incorporating iterative reference updates, OWPO creates a ``Ratchet Effect'' that continuously consolidates gains. Experimental results demonstrate that OWPO outperforms strong baselines, including DAPO, OPD, and MOPD, breaking the bottleneck of fixed priors to enable continuous self-evolution without reliance on external reference models.