FastODT: A tree-based framework for efficient continual learning

Power forecasting models deployed in real-world energy markets must operate under nonstationary conditions, where data distributions continually evolve due to weather variability, infrastructure upgrades, and changing consumption behaviors. In practice, these models face strict operational constraints: historical data may be limited or unavailable for repeated retraining, and uninterrupted long-term service is often required. This paper addresses these challenges by proposing the paradigm of Continuous Power Forecasting, which views power forecasting as a continual learning problem rather than a static offline task. Based on an adaptive continual learning framework for regression, we systematically investigate the practical effectiveness of six representative continual learning approaches from three methodological categories. These approaches are evaluated under different realistic assumptions regarding data accessibility and update policies. Experimental validation on real-world power datasets demonstrates that continual learning enables forecasting models to self-adapt to distributional drift, accumulate knowledge over time, and mitigate catastrophic forgetting without relying on large-scale historical data storage. Beyond performance gains, our study provides practical insights into the stability and adaptation behaviors of different continual learning approaches under realistic operational constraints. Overall, this work illustrates how continual learning can be pragmatically integrated into industrial power forecasting pipelines, offering a scalable and sustainable solution for long-term deployment in dynamic environments.

The Continual Learning (CL) literature has long been driven by the goal of mitigating catastrophic forgetting. This objective rests on a pervasive, often unstated assumption: that a lifelong learner should approximate the Joint-Task Learning (JTL) solution and retain all previously acquired knowledge. We challenge this retention-centered premise, arguing that in non-stationary environments prioritizing retention can impede real-time adaptation. Shifting the focus to the Average Lifelong Error (ALE), we formalize CL as an online optimization problem governed by the interaction between environmental and learning dynamics. We introduce Transfer Efficiency as a quantitative measure of the tension between Instability, the bias inherited from conflicting past experience, and Transient Error, the optimization cost of learning new tasks from scratch. Under mild convergence conditions, holding across linear and neural network models, this decomposition yields a Critical Task Duration: a closed-form threshold beyond which historical knowledge transitions from a warm-start advantage to an optimization liability whenever retention induces a positive stationary bias. We validate these theoretical predictions on continual image classification and reinforcement learning benchmarks. Finally, by connecting continual learning to the online learning framework of predictable sequences, we show that JTL is only one instance of a broader family of objectives, and we propose a new general class of continual learning algorithms, which we call Predictive Continual Learning. Predictive CL algorithms optimize expected future performance under an explicit, dynamically updated model of future tasks. As a proof of concept, we analyze a Window algorithm that interpolates between JTL and Independent-Task Learning (ITL), outperforming both under controlled distributional drift.

Online task-free continual learning (TFCL) requires intelligent agents to sequentially accumulate knowledge from an unbounded, non-stationary data stream under strict single-pass constraints and without any explicit task identifiers. Existing online TFCL paradigms primarily rely on parameter-efficient prompt tuning or dynamic structure expansion driven by training-coupled optimization dynamics, such as empirical loss fluctuations or evolving latent distances. As a result, these training-coupled solvers remain agnostic to the structural origins of distribution drift, mechanically enforcing a fixed strategy across fundamentally distinct streaming variations. To address this gap, we propose LargeMonitor, a framework that leverages large pretrained foundation models to autonomously orchestrate task-free continuous adaptation. Specifically, LargeMonitor introduces a decoupled detection module utilizing the frozen, stable representation space of large vision models (LVMs) to achieve robust, zero-shot drift detection without training-dependent interference or brittle threshold tuning. Upon a confirmed drift, the framework activates a context-aware diagnostic module driven by large multimodal models (LMMs) to interpret the precise semantic etiologies of the stream variation (e.g., novel class emergence vs. environmental domain shift). This dual-stage capability empowers the continuous learner to dynamically deploy adaptive and shift-specific optimization strategies. Extensive experiments across multiple TFCL settings and benchmarks demonstrate that LargeMonitor achieves precise, robust detection and diagnosis of complex data streams while consistently improving the performance of existing online TFCL algorithms.