EARCP: Self-Regulating Coherence-Aware Ensemble Architecture for Sequential Decision Making -- Ensemble Auto-Regule par Coherence et Performance

Ensemble models achieve state-of-the-art performance on prediction tasks, but usually require aggregating a large number of weak learners. This can hinder deployment, interpretability, and downstream tasks such as robustness verification. Remedies to this issue fall into two main camps: pruning, which discards redundant learners, and compression, which generates new ones from scratch. We introduce PACE, a framework that interleaves these paradigms in a two-phase strategy. First, new learners are actively generated via a theoretically grounded procedure to enhance the diversity of the initial ensemble. When no more relevant learners can be found, a second phase of pruning is performed on this enriched ensemble. During both operations, PACE allows fine control on the faithfulness to the original ensemble. Experiments show that our method outperforms prior pruning and compression methods while offering principled control of faithfulness guarantees.

Due to the diversity of real-world time series, no single forecasting model consistently dominates across all samples. Ensemble learning addresses this by combining complementary model strengths, yet existing methods rely on fixed rules or black-box models based solely on numerical inputs, failing to leverage LLM reasoning for interpretable weighting decisions. We propose REATS, which leverages LLM reasoning capabilities as an intelligent ensemble router that jointly processes textual temporal pattern descriptions and numerical features to produce interpretable, sample-adaptive ensemble weights through chain-of-thought reasoning. To enable effective LLM-based ensembling, we study its key design choices and propose: (i) a structured input pipeline that transforms raw time series into hybrid textual--numerical representations with fixed token cost, enabling rule-based chain-of-thought construction without API dependency, augmented with retrieved similar-sample priors; (ii) a diverse multi-row weight supervision scheme coupled with a token-efficient percentage-table format that reduces numerical complexity and mitigates LLM hallucinations; and (iii) a two-stage fine-tuning framework combining SFT with GRPO, where a reciprocal reward mapping transforms the continuous unbounded MSE gap into bounded signals with amplified near-oracle sensitivity, addressing the uniform sensitivity and outlier-dominated advantage compression inherent in naive reward designs for regression-based GRPO. Experiments on eight benchmarks demonstrate that REATS outperforms competitive ensemble baselines while providing natural language explanations and demonstrating strong transfer learning and out-of-domain generalization to unseen candidate models.

Ensemble sampling offers a practical approach to randomized exploration by maintaining a collection of models, but how small an ensemble can be while retaining strong regret guarantees remains unresolved. In particular, the existing guarantees use an ensemble size of $Θ(d\log T)$, leaving a logarithmic gap in the horizon $T$ relative to the intrinsic $Ω(d)$ ensemble-size barrier. We aim to narrow this gap by proposing an ensemble sampling algorithm that refreshes the ensemble only when the regularized Gram matrix changes substantially. This mechanism localizes the perturbation analysis to epochs with controlled Gram-matrix drift and reduces the sufficient ensemble size to $Θ(d\log d+d\log\log T)$, while preserving the state-of-the-art $\tilde O(d^{3/2}\sqrt T)$ regret for ensemble sampling with arbitrary bounded arm sets. We further show that, when the arm set is finite of cardinality $K$, the proposed algorithm achieves the sharper regret bound $\tilde O(d\sqrt{T\log K})$. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first ensemble-sampling guarantee that simultaneously recovers both canonical regret scalings known for randomized linear bandit algorithms: the $\tilde O(d^{3/2}\sqrt{T})$ rate for arbitrary bounded arm sets and the $\tilde O (d\sqrt{T\log K})$ rate for finite arm sets. The algorithm also admits an anytime implementation without resetting past data, and experiments show that it remains competitive with baselines while using substantially smaller ensembles.