4OPS: Structural Difficulty Modeling in Integer Arithmetic Puzzles

Difficulty is one of the most fundamental properties of a question: it determines whether the question can meaningfully discriminate between models of differing ability. Although a variety of methods can now estimate or predict difficulty automatically, they yield only a single descriptive number, with no account of the underlying factors that make a question difficult in the first place. In this work, we propose a data-driven approach that automatically generates and validates natural-language hypotheses explaining what makes one question harder than another. We first estimate each item's difficulty from the responses of a large pool of LLMs using Item Response Theory. We then sample contrasting sets of easy and hard questions and prompt an LLM to propose candidate explanations of the difference, which are subsequently validated and selected on held-out questions. Experimental results across three datasets spanning mathematical, logical, and commonsense reasoning show that our method produces interpretable and predictive hypotheses. On their own, they predict the difficulty of unseen questions competitively with, or better than, advanced black-box difficulty regressors; used as additional features, they further improve those regressors, implying that they discover difficulty signals that existing models fail to capture. Moreover, we demonstrate that editing questions according to a hypothesis can shift their measured difficulty in the expected direction, indicating that the discovered hypotheses are causally valid difficulty factors rather than post-hoc descriptions. Our approach thus turns a purely descriptive difficulty score into actionable statements.

Mathematical benchmarks consisting of a range of mathematics problems are widely used to evaluate the reasoning abilities of large language models, yet little is known about how their structural properties influence model behaviour. In this work, we investigate two structural length variables, prompt length and solution length, and analyse how they relate to model performance on a newly constructed adversarial dataset of expert-authored mathematics problems. We find that both prompt and solution lengths correlate positively with increased model failure across models. We also include a secondary, exploratory analysis of cross-model disagreement. Under a difficulty-adjusted normalised analysis, both variables retain weak negative associations with realised model separation, slightly stronger for prompt length. Overall, our main robust finding is that structural length is linked to empirical difficulty in this dataset.

Predicting human item difficulty is central to educational assessment, where reliable estimates support fairness and effective test construction. Existing methods often depend on costly human calibration or item-level textual representations, providing limited evidence about the cognitive processes that make items difficult. We argue that difficulty should be viewed not only as a property of item text, but also as an observable consequence of the problem-solving burden an item induces. Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) offer scalable process evidence through reasoning traces, but such evidence must be structured to support interpretable modeling. To this end, we introduce Epi2Diff (Episode to Difficulty), a framework that maps LRM reasoning traces into cognitively grounded episode sequences. These episodes group trace segments into functional problem-solving states, enabling difficulty to be modeled through reasoning scale, effort allocation, and state transitions. Epi2Diff extracts compact episode-dynamic features and combines them with semantic item representations for human difficulty prediction. Experiments on four real-world human difficulty datasets show that Epi2Diff consistently outperforms strong baselines, including fine-tuned small language models, LLM in-context learning, and supervised LLM adaptation. On SAT-derived classification benchmarks, Epi2Diff achieves an 8.1% average relative gain over supervised LLM fine-tuning baselines. Further analyses show that harder items induce more effortful, iterative, and implementation-centered episode dynamics, rather than merely longer responses. These results demonstrate that cognitive episodes in LRM reasoning traces provide a predictive and interpretable process representation for human item difficulty, offering a new lens for educational measurement with reasoning models.