From Astronomy to Astrology: Testing the Illusion of Zodiac-Based Personality Prediction with Machine Learning

Personality recognition has traditionally been constrained by theory-dependent formulations, where models are trained to fit predefined psychological taxonomies rather than uncovering shared underlying behavioral structure. This limits generalization, as personality itself is better understood as theory-invariant, while existing annotations reflect only partial and sometimes inconsistent views of the same latent traits. In this work, we introduce JAM ((J)udge for (A)daptive (M)etric-Alignment), a theory-agnostic framework that shifts learning from adapting to predefined personality theories toward discovering unified latent pseudo-facets that capture shared psychological structure. Rather than constraining the model to any personality taxonomy during training or inference, the framework learns generalizable psychological representations and can infer an individual's latent psychological profile directly from the textual samples, without requiring theory-specific labels. JAM achieves this through an Attention-Pooled Graph Prototypical Network that learns structured representations via clustering in embedding space, together with a Cross-Theory Harmonization (CTH) approach that integrates (i) Human-Guided Linkage and (ii) Machine-Induced Consensus to unify heterogeneous datasets without relying on predefined labels. To further improve robustness and data quality, we incorporate an LLM-as-a-Judge mechanism operating in two configurations, (i) LLM-before-the-loop and (ii) LLM-in-the-loop which identifies ambiguous samples to guide adaptive metric learning. Experiments show that JAM improves cross-framework generalization and performance, establishing a strong step toward theory-agnostic personality inference and supporting low-resource personality theories. The related code repository, model weights, and artifacts are available at https://research.jingjietan.com/JAM

Understanding human personality is important for personalized recommendation and mental health assessment. Existing personality detection methods typically encode social media posts into user representations and predict personality labels. Despite advances in large language models (LLMs), these methods face limited supervision from scarce labels and an unclear mapping between user language and psychological constructs. We propose ROME, a framework that incorporates psychological knowledge into personality detection. Inspired by standardized self-assessment tests, ROME uses LLM role-playing to simulate users' responses to validated psychometric questionnaires. These question-level answers provide interpretable, questionnaire-grounded evidence and intermediate supervision. A question-conditioned Mixture-of-Experts module jointly routes post and question representations to predict questionnaire answers under explicit supervision. The predicted answers are aggregated into an interpretable answer vector and fused with user representations for final personality prediction in a multi-task learning framework. Experiments on two real-world datasets show that ROME outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, with relative improvements of 13.60% on Kaggle and 19.72% on Pandora. Code is available at https://github.com/JasmineLyf/ROME.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used to simulate human populations via persona prompting, often under the assumptions that richer persona descriptions improve behavioral fidelity, similarly sized attribute combinations are equally simulatable, and persona definitions generalize across tasks. In this work, we formalize these assumptions and systematically evaluate them across multiple architectures, scales, and simulation settings. We identify a fundamental limitation we term persona manifold collapse, where increasingly expressive persona specifications lead to systematic contraction of representational and behavioral diversity. Across models, increasing persona complexity consistently reduces inter-persona separation in latent space and weakens behavioral differentiation in downstream simulation tasks. These effects persist across multiple analyses as richer personas fail to preserve human subgroup disagreement, performance varies across attribute combinations of similar size, and adding descriptive detail often degrades rather than improves simulation fidelity. Surprisingly, simple Age-Gender personas consistently outperform richly specified Ideal Customer Profiles (ICPs) across industries, achieving substantially higher downstream prediction accuracy. We find that collapse is not uniform across attributes. Certain combinations remain behaviorally stable and preserve stronger alignment with human responses, forming localized regions we term alignment bridges. Together, our results provide empirical and conceptual foundations for understanding the limits of persona-conditioned simulation, highlighting the need for representation-aware persona construction rather than increasing persona expressivity alone.