CircuitProbe: Predicting Reasoning Circuits in Transformers via Stability Zone Detection

In mechanistic interpretability, recent work scrutinizes transformer "circuits" - sparse, mono or multi layer sub computations, that may reflect human understandable functions. Yet, these network circuits are rarely acid-tested for their stability across different instances of the same deep learning architecture. Without this, it remains unclear whether reported circuits emerge universally across labs or turn out to be idiosyncratic to a particular estimation instance, potentially limiting confidence in safety-critical settings. Here, we systematically study stability across-refits in increasingly complex transformer language models of various sizes. We quantify, layer by layer, how similarly attention heads learn representations across independently initialized training runs. Our rigorous experiments show that (1) middle-layer heads are the least stable yet the most representationally distinct; (2) deeper models exhibit stronger mid-depth divergence; (3) unstable heads in deeper layers become more functionally important than their peers from the same layer; (4) applying weight decay optimization substantially improves attention-head stability across random model initializations; and (5) the residual stream is comparatively stable. Our findings establish the cross-instance robustness of circuits as an essential yet underappreciated prerequisite for scalable oversight, drawing contours around possible white-box monitorability of AI systems.

Mechanistic interpretability assumes that circuit analysis becomes harder as models scale. We challenge this assumption by showing that the attention architecture matters more than parameter count. Studying three circuit types across Pythia and Qwen2.5, we find that grouped query attention produces circuits that are far more concentrated and mechanistically stable than standard multi-head attention at comparable scales. The same concentration pattern holds across indirect object identification, induction heads, and factual recall. Within a single architecture family (Qwen2.5), factual recall circuits undergo a discrete phase transition above a critical scale, collapsing to a single bottleneck rather than degrading gradually. These findings suggest that some architectural choices make large models more tractable to study and that interpretability difficulty is not a fixed consequence of model size.

We present a three-step recipe for identifying attention-head circuits in pretrained transformers. A per-head spectral signal -- the time-integrated participation ratio of each head's attention output -- ranks heads doing sustained content-dependent computation without labels or attribution gradients. A task-pattern screen filters this general indicator into a task-specific candidate circuit, and group ablation against a matched-random control completes the causal claim. We validate across an 8x parameter range (51M to 1B-active / 7B-total), two architecture families (dense, mixture-of-experts), and four pretraining pipelines. The recipe ports: a 2-6 head induction circuit is causally necessary in every model tested, with a 94-100% drop in synthetic-induction top-1 after ablation. The spectral signal is predictive without supervision: on six independent seeds of a 51M-parameter probe model, the same computation identifies the seed-specific circuit on each seed. The fraction of heads doing identifiable specialized computation is conserved at 17-19% across the Pythia family (124M to 410M), while specific induction circuits stay 3-11 heads -- sublinear in total head count. This paper is the methodology anchor of a three-paper program; companion papers extend the recipe to developmental trajectories during pretraining and to composed-task circuits where pattern selectivity decouples from task-causal structure.