TRACE: Traceroute-based Internet Route change Analysis with Ensemble Learning

Routing to select large language models (LLMs) with different cost-quality trade-offs has become a fundamental deployment feature of enterprise AI. Existing routers, primarily make independent routing decisions for each LLM call. However, agentic applications execute as long-horizon workflows whose quality is determined only by a delayed, task-level outcome. This mismatch prevents per-call routers from correctly attributing feedback to individual routing decisions. Towards mitigating this, we present TRACE-Router, a task-level routing framework that aligns routing with the unit of supervision. TRACE-Router assigns each task to a model once at admission using a contextual bandit, pins all subsequent LLM calls to the selected backend, and updates its policy using the task's terminal reward, jointly accounting for accuracy and latency. By leveraging delayed task feedback, TRACE-Router learns routing policies that adapt to the workload while avoiding explicit task-complexity estimation. Across three agentic benchmarks, TRACE-Router consistently improves the accuracy-latency trade-off, achieving non-dominated Pareto frontier points. On tau2-Bench, it outperforms latency-matched interpolation between individual models by 7-8 accuracy points, while on Terminal-Bench it achieves 7.1 higher accuracy points than the strongest single model baseline with 36% lower latency.

Predicting Internet round-trip time (RTT) is critical for routing optimization, quality-of-service (QoS) provisioning, and traffic engineering, yet remains challenging due to long-term temporal dependencies, evolving routing dynamics, and heavy-tailed latency distributions. While Temporal Graph Neural Networks (TGNNs) can model evolving network topologies, most existing approaches operate in Euclidean space, which poorly captures the hierarchical and scale-free structure of Internet routing graphs. Hyperbolic geometry provides a more suitable representation space. We propose HERMIT (Hyperbolic Edge-aware RTT Modeling via Integrated Topology), a hybrid framework combining a hyperbolic manifold-preserving temporal GNN with a Random Forest regressor for joint link prediction and RTT prediction. Built on HMPTGN, HERMIT introduces RTT-aware edge features and a learnable edge encoder to improve modeling of evolving link states and routing behavior. The resulting hyperbolic node representations are combined with historical RTT statistics for robust latency prediction. We evaluate HERMIT on a large-scale real Internet dataset spanning 2015-2024. HERMIT consistently outperforms a strong Random Forest baseline using only historical RTT statistics, achieving a 6% RMSE improvement while reducing large errors on heavy-tailed samples. It also surpasses prior hyperbolic TGNN models, including HMPTGN and HTGN, in link prediction performance. These results demonstrate that combining hyperbolic temporal graph learning with tree-based regression provides a scalable solution for RTT prediction in real-world Internet topologies.

Every call to an LLM classification endpoint produces a labeled input-output pair already retained in production logs. These pairs constitute a free, growing training set: a lightweight surrogate trained on them can absorb a significant portion of future traffic at near-zero marginal inference cost. The open questions are when the surrogate is reliable enough to deploy, what it handles versus defers, and how that boundary evolves as data accumulates. We introduce TRACER (Trace-based Adaptive Cost-Efficient Routing), an open-source system that trains ML surrogates on an LLM's own production traces and governs deployment through a parity gate: the surrogate is activated only when its agreement with the LLM exceeds a user-specified threshold α. To make the routing boundary transparent, TRACER generates interpretability artifacts describing which input regions the surrogate handles, where it plateaus, and why it defers. On a 77-class intent benchmark with a Sonnet 4.6 teacher, TRACER achieves 83-100% surrogate coverage depending on the quality target α; on a 150-class benchmark, the surrogate fully replaces the teacher. On a natural language inference task, the parity gate correctly refuses deployment because the embedding representation cannot support reliable separation. The system is available as open-source software.