Jump Start or False Start? A Theoretical and Empirical Evaluation of LLM-initialized Bandits

Multi-armed bandit algorithms, especially Thompson sampling, are widely used in online recommendation. Despite their ability to adapt from online feedback, these methods often suffer from cold-start limitations when newly introduced arms have little or no interaction history. In our setting, the candidate arms are user-generated textual comments, whose semantic content can reveal a title's appeal before sufficient interaction feedback is available. We therefore use large language models (LLMs) to extract semantic signals from comment text and convert them into informative Bayesian priors that warm-start Thompson sampling under sparse early-stage feedback. To account for aggregate segment-level differences in response patterns, we maintain and update posteriors separately for each gender-age segment. In a real-world online A/B/C test, we compare a uniform prior with two LLM-based designs: a Gender Prior for demographic-affinity cues and a Content Prior for title-specific identity cues. The results show that LLM-based priors are most beneficial in sparse-feedback regimes -- with the largest gains emerging once a small amount of interaction evidence has accumulated -- and that prior design leads to distinct funnel-level effects. We further analyze prior-reward alignment and demographic heterogeneity, finding that click-oriented alignment is strongest for the Gender Prior and that treatment effects vary substantially across demographic segments. These findings suggest that LLM-derived priors can serve as a practical warm-start mechanism for text-rich bandit recommendation, while also revealing deployment trade-offs.

An agent that learns a user's preferences from their choices faces a cold start problem: before any choices are observed, it must rely solely on a prior. Informative priors are usually fitted to historical choice data, which new tasks and deployments lack. To address this, we present Agentic-Priors, which lets agentic systems use the implicit knowledge of large language models (LLMs) instead. Specifically, an LLM states a new user's trade-offs in interpretable terms, such as willingness to pay or value of time, which we map to a prior over multinomial logit coefficients. This prior is then refined by a Bayesian learner as choices are observed. Across seven choice datasets, Agentic-Priors improves cold start accuracy over an uninformed prior by 5-40 percentage points. It also outperforms AutoElicit, a state-of-the-art LLM prior-elicitation method, on three datasets and loses on one. It is up to 18 points more accurate than in-context learning, and never significantly worse. Against hierarchical Bayes models fitted to surveys of increasing size, our approach is worth roughly 6-40 surveyed users, in terms of log-loss, so its value is concentrated in a deployment's first users.

Contextual bandit algorithms suffer from high regret during cold-start, when the learner has insufficient data to distinguish good arms from bad. We propose augmenting Disjoint LinUCB with LLM pseudo-observations: after each round, a large language model predicts counterfactual rewards for the unplayed arms, and these predictions are injected into the learner as weighted pseudo-observations. The injection weight is controlled by a calibration-gated decay schedule that tracks the LLM's prediction accuracy on played arms via an exponential moving average; high calibration error suppresses the LLM's influence, while accurate predictions receive higher weight during the critical early rounds. We evaluate on two contextual bandit environments - UCI Mushroom (2-arm, asymmetric rewards) and MIND-small (5-arm news recommendation) - and find that when equipped with a task-specific prompt, LLM pseudo-observations reduce cumulative regret by 19% on MIND relative to pure LinUCB. However, generic counterfactual prompt framing increases regret on both environments, demonstrating that prompt design is the dominant factor, more important than the choice of decay schedule or calibration gating parameters. We analyze the failure modes of calibration gating on domains with small prediction errors and provide a theoretical motivation for the bias-variance trade-off governing pseudo-observation weight.