Neural Parameter Estimation of RC Thermal Building Models for Model Predictive Control

Demand-side flexibility i.e. forecasting, shifting, and curtailing residential energy loads, depends on thermal models trusted across millions of heterogeneous buildings. Existing tools force a hard tradeoff: high-fidelity physics simulators such as EnergyPlus are accurate but sequential and require per-building calibration, while purely data-driven sequence models scale but abandon the physical structure that makes their predictions trustworthy. We introduce NeuralBES (Building Energy Simulation), a differentiable emulator that resolves this tradeoff by parameterizing a resistance--capacitance (RC) based thermal model with a shared neural encoder: static building metadata such as floor area, vintage, and HVAC type is mapped to physically bounded capacitances, conductances, and equipment coefficients, which become the coefficients of a scalar linear recurrence solved via a log-space parallel scan, and a predictor--corrector loop closes the thermostat--temperature nonlinearity while preserving full-horizon gradient flow. Trained on the ResStock dataset across three climate zones, NeuralBES handles heterogeneous building archetypes, vintages, and climate zones within a single trained encoder, while black-box baselines produce statistically plausible but physically inconsistent trajectories. On the annual full-year rollout, NeuralBES is the only data-conditioned model that is simultaneously physics-valid and accurate to within 4 MAPE points of the strongest raw-error baseline, while operating at roughly an order of magnitude fewer parameters than the transformer and recurrent baselines; among physics-valid baselines at parameter parity it more than halves the MAPE of the grey-box RC alternative.

The widespread adoption of data-driven, energy-efficient model predictive control (MPC) in buildings remains hindered by substantial effort to collect data and train models for individual buildings. Transfer learning (TL) has consequently gained increasing attention for target building modeling, as it reduces data requirements and modeling effort by reusing pretrained source models. However, these TL models are typically evaluated only on prediction accuracy in the target, without testing downstream control performance. To address this gap, we apply a state-of-the-art TL approach - pretraining a generalized model on multiple source buildings using standard operational data - within an MPC setup in a target building. We show that this approach is insufficient to achieve satisfactory control performance. As a solution, we introduce generalized models pretrained on excitation-based operational source data - purposefully probed inputs that explore the building's state-action space. For evaluation, we apply the generalized models via zero-shot (i.e., without fine-tuning) to 32 simulated target buildings and assess MPC performance. Our results show that excitation-based generalized models achieve the strongest control performance among all benchmarks, outperforming an online linear model-based MPC and a PI controller by 6.4% and 36.9%, respectively. By combining strong control performance with the ability to generalize across multiple buildings, without requiring any target-specific data, our approach reduces MPC setup cost and simplifies its widespread deployment in the building sector.

Buildings are expected to shift cooling loads in response to grid conditions. Thermal energy storage (TES) enables this shift, but scheduling it well requires planning hours ahead under storage constraints. Model predictive control (MPC) and reinforcement learning are difficult to scale across buildings. This study instead adapts an open-weight reasoning model through reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR). We convert exact offline dynamic-programming (DP) action values into dense rewards for every candidate action. Using only 30 training prompts, reinforcement fine-tuning (RFT) trains the model as an upper-level scheduler that outputs hourly heat-pump setpoints from text-based states and forecasts. Evaluation uses a deliberately simple office-building TES benchmark where exact DP is tractable and the optimum is known. RFT reduces the open-weight model's emissions from 70.5 to 61.2 kg-CO2, close to the DP optimum of 60.8 kg-CO2. GPT-5 nearly matches DP and MPC without task-specific training, while GPT-4o, a non-reasoning LLM, produces higher emissions than the no-storage baseline, so inference-time reasoning appears important. Trace analysis shows that RFT mainly stabilizes observable planning patterns (candidate comparison, look-ahead, and feasibility checking) rather than creating a new strategy. Robustness and generalization tests clarify what transfers: the reinforced planning patterns persist under forecast errors and an unseen TES condition and carry over to a battery task, but its different structure limits the gains. DP-based verifiable rewards offer a practical way to adapt open-weight reasoning models to building storage scheduling. These results motivate higher-fidelity tests of whole-building control and scalable verifiers for city-scale energy management.