Predicting Activity Cliffs for Autonomous Medicinal Chemistry

Activity cliffs, structurally similar compounds with large potency differences, are widely treated as intrinsic features of chemical datasets. We argue that apart from target biology, much of our cliff understanding is a consequence of the geometry induced by the chosen molecular representation, not a property of a molecule pair itself. We designed a six-step pipeline to systematically test this hypothesis. The pipeline consists of: assessing pairwise distance geometry, cliff enrichment, activity gradient distribution, persistent homology of the cliff subspace, predictive benchmarking for a chosen pair of an embedding and a metric, and eventually, analysis of the matched molecular pairs and stereoisomers. We applied the pipeline to fifteen configurations of embeddings and metrics to build a benchmark across three distinctive datasets known of activity cliffs challenges. No representation excels on all criteria: Morgan Tanimoto provides the strongest cliff enrichment and cross-scaffold generalization; MolFormer cosine provides the only meaningful stereochemical sensitivity; MACCS and RDKit Dice fingerprints are most sensitive to matched-molecular-pair transformations; ChemBERTa fails uniformly due to embedding collapse. These findings are not a ranking. They reflect the fact that different representations encode different aspects of molecular recognition, and that choosing one implicitly defines what an activity cliff actually is.

Accurate prediction of molecular properties underpins drug discovery and material design, yet even state-of-the-art models remain vulnerable to localized failure modes that aggregate metrics cannot detect. The places where molecular similarity should be most helpful are also places where standard evaluation can be most misleading. Property cliffs expose this gap: structurally similar molecules can still differ sharply in target property, so models with competitive overall performance may fail in high-risk local neighborhoods. To expose and mitigate this failure mode, CliffSplit, a cliff-aware evaluation protocol that constructs locally supported, cliff-exposed test cases, and CliffLoss, a model-agnostic train-only mitigation mechanism for cliff-sensitive errors, are introduced. Experiments on three QM9 targets and three MoleculeNet tasks across five backbones show that CliffSplit reveals at least 15% higher error in cliff-heavy QM9 regions, while CliffLoss reduces the cliff-to-smooth error gap by up to 30% on Lipophilicity and improves overall MAE by 9.7%. Together, these results turn molecular similarity failure from a descriptive anomaly into a benchmarked evaluation problem for molecular machine learning. The code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/Cliff_Loss.

Activity-cliff ranking remains difficult because local structural changes can cause large activity differences, while high-quality data that resolve the underlying mechanisms remain limited. To use available activity labels more effectively, we combine absolute-activity regression with ranking-consistency learning. CliffRank trains two parallel predictors with mean squared error, a thresholded listwise loss, and Pairwise Preference Consistency (PPC), which aligns relative ordering in the preference-probability space. On three antimicrobial peptide datasets, CliffRank with ESM2-t12 achieved the highest mean Spearman correlation of 0.5393 and mean Recall@50 of 21.4, although the leading method varied across individual datasets. On three small-molecule datasets, CliffRank with PNA, where PPC was activated after 120 epochs, achieved the highest mean Spearman correlation of 0.6890, while its mean Recall@50 of 30.4 matched that of ACANet-PNA. The PPC results also define its practical limits. Asymmetric initialization improved the MolCLR-GIN averages but did not improve every target. For PNA without pretrained weights, delayed PPC improved selected metrics, but no schedule was best for both mean Spearman correlation and mean Recall@50. Future work should evaluate more targets and antimicrobial peptide systems, develop adaptive PPC schedules, and incorporate protein or membrane context when available.