Adaptive Rigor in AI System Evaluation using Temperature-Controlled Verdict Aggregation via Generalized Power Mean

LLM-as-judge ("grader") components are now standard in evaluation harnesses, including safety evaluations where a pass/fail verdict may gate downstream deployment decisions. A widespread assumption is that setting the grader's sampling temperature to 0 makes grading deterministic. We test this assumption against a real safety-evaluation codebase (Japan AISI's open-source aisev) and show it fails on two levels. First, the harness invokes its grader without setting temperature or seed; the underlying provider silently applies its default of 1.0, so items near the decision boundary flip pass/fail across identical runs (per-item disagreement up to ~50% over 20 runs). Second, pinning temperature=0 reduces but does not eliminate flips: across 690 API calls spanning two providers, three model tiers, and five sampling configurations, 1-2 of 7 borderline items remain non-reproducible even under forced greedy decoding (top_k=1). Claude Opus 4.7/4.8 has since deprecated temperature entirely, rendering the primary mitigation inapplicable to newer model generations. These findings expose a structural gap: evaluation harnesses that report single-run verdicts without variance or grader-disagreement metrics can present noise as a safety property. We release a reproduction harness (690 calls, 7 conditions) and recommend that harnesses treat grader disagreement as a first-class health metric alongside the scores themselves.

LLM-as-a-judge ensembles are the standard paradigm for scalable evaluation, but their aggregation mechanisms suffer from a fundamental flaw: they implicitly assume that judges provide independent estimates of true quality. However, in practice, LLM judges exhibit correlated errors caused by shared latent confounders -- such as verbosity, stylistic preferences, or training artifacts -- causing standard aggregation rules like majority vote or averaging to provide little gain or even amplify systematic mistakes. To address this, we introduce CARE, a confounder-aware aggregation framework that explicitly models LLM judge scores as arising from both a latent true-quality signal and shared confounding factors. Rather than heuristically re-weighting judges, CARE separates quality from confounders without access to ground-truth labels. We provide theoretical guarantees for identifiability and finite-sample recovery under shared confounders, and we quantify the systematic bias incurred when aggregation models omit confounding latent factors. Across 12 public benchmarks spanning continuous scoring, binary classification, and pairwise preference settings, CARE improves aggregation accuracy, reducing error by up to 26.8%. Code is released in https://github.com/SprocketLab/CARE.

As AI models progress beyond simple chatbots into more complex workflows, we draw ever closer to the event horizon beyond which AI systems will be utilized in autonomous, self-maintaining feedback loops. Any autonomous AI system will depend on automated, verifiable rewards and feedback; in settings where ground truth is sparse or non-deterministic, one practical source of such rewards is an LLM-as-a-Judge. Although LLM judges continue to improve, the literature has yet to introduce systems capable of enforcing standards with strong guarantees, particularly when bias vectors are unknown or adversarially discovered. To remedy this issue, we propose average bias-boundedness (A-BB), an algorithmic framework which formally guarantees reductions of harm/impact as a result of any measurable bias in an LLM judge. Evaluating on Arena-Hard-Auto with four LLM judges, we achieve (tau=0.5, delta=0.01) bias-bounded guarantees while retaining 61-99% correlation with original rankings across formatting and schematic bias settings, with most judge-bias combinations exceeding 80%. The code to reproduce our findings is available at https://github.com/penfever/bias-bounded-evaluation.