Alleviating Community Fear in Disasters via Multi-Agent Actor-Critic Reinforcement Learning
Authors: Yashodhan D. Hakke, Almuatazbellah M. Boker, Lamine Mili, Michael von Spakovsky, Hoda Eldardiry
Organizations: Bradley Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, USA · Department of Mechanical Engineering, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, USA · Department of Computer Science, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, USA
During disasters, cascading failures across power grids, communication networks, and social behavior amplify community fear and undermine cooperation. Existing cyber-physical-social (CPS) models simulate these coupled dynamics but lack mechanisms for active intervention. We extend the CPS resilience model of Valinejad and Mili (2023) with control channels for three agencies, communication, power, and emergency management, and formulate the resulting system as a three-player non-zero-sum differential game solved via online actor-critic reinforcement learning. Simulations based on Hurricane Harvey data show 70% mean fear reduction with improved infrastructure recovery; cross-validation in the case of Hurricane Irma (without refitting) achieves 50% fear reduction, confirming generalizability.
Figures & tables
Index
Variable
Layer
x1
Fear
Social
x2
Information seeking
Social
x3
Flexibility / adaptability
Social
x4
Physical health
Social
x5
Risk perception
Social
x6
Cooperation
Social
TABLE I: Community state vector x(t) and component interpretation.
Group
Symbols
Source
CPSS model (refit)
κ,ζ
Structure from [ 7 ] ; values refit via LS
αθ,ηθ,ηP,ηR,ηC,ηL
{ιk},γ8,γ9,γ10
Control design (chosen)
β1,β8,β9,β10
Domain knowledge + drift matching
qi,k,Rii,Rij
Learning (tuned)
αc,i,αa,i,p,ϕ(x)
RL best practice [ 10 ]
TABLE II: Parameter groups, symbols, and calibration sources.
Fig. 1: Ten CPSS state trajectories under three conditions. Black markers : observed data (actual measurements from Hurricane Harvey/Irma via LIWC text mining, utility outage reports, and FEMA logs); blue dashed : open-loop baseline (model simulation with identified parameters and no control input, u≡0 ); red solid : closed-loop trajectory under the learned actor–critic policies. The gap between observed data and the open-loop baseline reflects the model prediction error (RMSE =0.19 for Harvey, 0.29 for Irma). (a) Harvey: the controller reduces mean fear ( x1 ) by ∼ 70% relative to the baseline while improving power availability ( x8 ) and physical health ( x4 ). (b) Irma (Harvey-fitted parameters, no refitting): mean fear is reduced by ∼ 50% despite a higher initial fear ( x1(0)=0.9 vs. 0.62 ); power availability is maintained near 1.0 even during the sharp drop at steps 10–11.
Fig. 2: Extended rollouts ( 2× horizon). Beyond the data window, exogenous drivers are held constant at their last observed values. (a) Harvey, 34 steps. (b) Irma, 24 steps. In both cases the learned policies continue to suppress fear and stabilize infrastructure in the extrapolated regime.
Fig. 3: Control inputs u1 (communication), u2 (power), u3 (EMS). (a) Harvey, 17 steps. (b) Irma, 12 steps. During the exploration phase ( t≤12 ), sinusoidal probing is visible. After exploration ends, controls settle to small values as fear is suppressed and infrastructure deficits diminish. Player 1 (communication) dominates in both hurricanes, reflecting the dual coupling of u1 to fear and fake news.
Fig. 4: Bellman (Hamiltonian) residuals εc,i for each player. Player 2 (power) converges near zero within 12 steps. Player 3 (EMS) shows the largest initial residual due to its multi-objective cost ( x1 , x4 , x9 ) but decreases substantially. Player 1 (communication) stabilizes at a small residual.
Fig. 5: Norms of critic ( ∥Wc,i∥ , solid) and actor ( ∥Wa,i∥ , dashed) weight vectors. All weights start from zero (admissible initialization). The actor weights track the critic weights with a lag set by the ratio αa,i/αc,i , as consistent with the two-timescale nature of the learning algorithm.
Harvey
Irma
Metric
Base
Ctrl
Base
Ctrl
Mean fear ( x1 )
0.523
0.158
0.745
0.369
Fear reduction (%)
—
69.8
—
50.4
Power deficit ( 1−x8 )
0.127
0.087
0.113
0.014
Health deficit ( 1−x4 )
0.410
0.371
0.647
0.616
EMS deficit ( 1−x9 )
0.438
0.496
0.602
0.790
TABLE III: Performance comparison across both hurricanes.
Method
Fear % ↑
Pow
EMS
Effort
ΣJ
Open-loop
0.0
0.127
0.438
0
17.17
Constant uˉ
92.1
0.052
0.346
51.0
56.76
Prop. (tuned)
85.7
0.121
0.420
1.60
9.06
Centralized AC
70.7
0.085
0.495
1.27
14.01
NZS AC (ours)
69.8
0.087
0.496
0.97
13.81
TABLE IV: Controller comparison (Hurricane Harvey). ΣJ : total integrated cost across all players. Effort: ∑ui2 .
Configuration
Fear % ↑
Pow
EMS
E1 %
Default
69.8
0.087
0.496
5.4
2×q1,1
70.0
0.087
0.496
8.5
0.5×q1,1
69.7
0.087
0.496
3.4
5×q3,9
69.8
0.087
0.491
5.4
2×β1
80.5
0.087
0.496
2.4
0.5×β1
45.5
0.087
0.495
1.9
TABLE V: Sensitivity analysis (Hurricane Harvey). Default: q1,1=1 , β1=0.5 , Δ=6 . Fear %: mean fear reduction; Pow/EMS: mean deficit; E1 : Player 1 exploitability at ϵ=5% .
Improvement (%)
Player
5%
10%
20%
Jibase
ΔJi
P1 (Comm)
5.4
14.5
17.7
4.29
0.23
P2 (Power)
0.1
0.1
0.1
1.86
< 0.01
P3 (EMS)
0.1
0.1
0.1
6.74
< 0.01
TABLE VI: Unilateral deviation test: maximum cost improvement found by perturbing each player’s actor weights at scale ϵ⋅∥W^a,i∥ . ΔJi : absolute improvement at ϵ=5% .
Fig. 6: PE proxy diagnostics. Top: minimum eigenvalue of the running average covariance of the normalized regressor. Bottom: windowed variant. Both remain near zero because p=66 exceeds the 17-sample trajectory length. Vertical dashed line marks the end of the exploration phase ( Tex=12 ).
Multi-agent control coordinates interacting autonomous agents to achieve shared goals while respecting safety, communication, and resource constraints.
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Wen Qiu, Zhiqiang He, Wei Zhao +1
Department of Information and Communication Engineering, Kitami Institute of Technology, Japan · Graduate School of Informatics and Engineering, University of Electro-Communications, Japan · School of Computer Science and Technology, Anhui University of Technology, China
Critical infrastructures are increasingly distributed, interdependent, and exposed to evolving disruptions, making resilience a central requirement for their operation and control. This paper argues that decentralized multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) should be understood not merely as a distributed alternative to centralized training with decentralized execution but as a paradigm structurally aligned with the requirements of resilient critical infrastructures. This perspective is grounded in an analysis of the properties of decentralized MARL and the requirements of critical infrastructures, including scalability to large numbers of agents, support for privacy and local autonomy, robustness to failures, and interaction-driven adaptation among interdependent components. However, structural alignment alone is insufficient for practical deployment. This paper identifies credit assignment and communication as two central conditions for its practical feasibility. Credit assignment determines whether local learning remains aligned with system-level objectives, while communication determines whether coordination can be learned and maintained under realistic operational constraints. Building on these challenges, this paper proposes a research agenda focused on structure-aware, causality-aware, and resilience-aware credit assignment; communication for both coordination and credit assignment; and safe, timely, and recoverable decentralized learning under deployment constraints. Overall, this paper reframes decentralized MARL as a promising but conditional foundation for resilient critical infrastructures.
Minghui Ding, Evangelos Pournaras
School of Computer Science, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Unexpected shocks recur in global operations, requiring decision rules that adapt as market and operating conditions change. Many operational systems also have hierarchical structures in which long-term and short-term decisions pursue a shared objective. We study how hierarchical reinforcement learning can strengthen resilience by adapting these interdependent rules jointly. We develop a two-timescale hierarchical reinforcement learning framework that adapts long-term and short-term policies at their respective time scales. Because the policies are interdependent, we synchronize their updates and prove, to our knowledge, the first convergence guarantees for coupled two-timescale learning. Over T periods, our policies' average gap from an optimal policy pair is O(T−1/2), improving to O(logT/T) when poor decisions produce clearer profit losses. In a used-car case study, inventory replenishment is the long-term decision and customer-arrival pricing the short-term decision. Relative to the strongest partially adaptive benchmark, the framework increases mean profit by 9.2% under joint demand-supply shocks and by 11.8% under a prolonged shock scenario, while maintaining a more stable profit trajectory over time. Short-term adaptation addresses routine seasonality and one-sided disruptions by responding immediately to changing conditions. Under joint demand-supply shocks, however, it is insufficient alone; long-term adaptation is also needed to create favorable conditions for short-term decisions. Joint adaptation thus yields higher and more stable profits through disruption and recovery. Because many organizations already use hierarchical planning, the framework strengthens operational resilience without altering existing decision structures.
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Department of Statistics, Harvard University · Edwardson School of Industrial Engineering, Purdue University · Mitch Daniels School of Business, Purdue University +3