PAS: Estimating the target accuracy before domain adaptation

Domain adaptation aims to mitigate performance degradation caused by distribution shifts between a labeled source domain and an unlabeled or sparsely labeled target domain. Most existing approaches estimate domain discrepancy either in feature space or in prediction space. However, these single-perspective strategies overlook a critical problem under domain shift: the reliability of the signals used for alignment. In practice, both learned representations and semantic predictions may become unreliable, and treating all target samples equally can lead to misleading alignment and suboptimal transfer. We introduce trust-aware domain adaptation, a principled framework that models domain discrepancy through the reliability of feature and prediction signals. Central to our approach is the Joint Feature-Prediction Discrepancy (JFPD), a unified formulation that jointly captures representation divergence and prediction divergence while weighting their contributions by sample-specific trust. Trust is quantified via two complementary mechanisms: uncertainty-aware trust, derived from prediction entropy to suppress unreliable predictions, and semantic-alignment trust, computed from prototype similarity in feature space to emphasize well-aligned representations. By prioritizing confident and semantically consistent samples while down-weighting noisy or ambiguous ones, JFPD provides a reliability-aware estimate of domain discrepancy. We further integrate JFPD into a training objective that guides adaptation toward trustworthy regions of the target domain. Experiments on standard benchmarks demonstrate that the proposed framework consistently achieves superior adaptation performance and yields discrepancy estimates that correlate with target-domain error. This work addresses, for the first time, the importance of modeling trust in the interaction between features and predictions for domain adaptation.

With growing privacy and portability concerns, source-free domain adaptation requires only a source pre-trained model and an unlabeled target domain, allowing for effective adaptation to the target data. Most existing self-training methods focus on selecting and exploiting samples with reliable predictions, often neglecting others. Inspired by the finding that deep models learn clean samples faster than noisy ones, we propose a domain-division based progressive learning method named DPL. Specifically, our approach consists of two alternating stages, each beginning with the division of the target domain into easy-to-adapt and hard-to-adapt subdomains based on adaptation difficulty, followed by neighborhood-based pseudo label assignment. In stage one, we enhance classification accuracy through uncertainty-aware self-training and alignment of corresponding classes between subdomains. Stage two then applies tailored learning strategies to each subdomain, starting with consistency learning on the easy-to-adapt samples and progressing to utilizing local structural information for the more challenging ones, thereby mining the intrinsic properties of the target data. Extensive experiments on several widely used benchmarks validate the effectiveness of our approach, demonstrating superior performance compared to state-of-the-art methods. Our code is available at https://github.com/iamjingli/DPL.

Domain adaptation faces a fundamental paradox in the cold-start regime. When target data is scarce, statistical methods fail to distinguish relevant source domains from irrelevant ones, which often leads to negative transfer. In this paper, we address this challenge by leveraging expert textual descriptions of the target domain, a resource that is often available but overlooked. We propose a probabilistic framework that translates these semantic descriptions into a choice model, namely a Language-Induced Prior (LIP), that learns the preferences from a pretrained Large Language Model (LLM). The LIP is then integrated into an Expectation-Maximization algorithm to identify source relevance. Methodologically, this framework is compatible with any parametric model where a likelihood is available. It allows the LIP to guide the selection of sources when target signals are weak, while gradually refining these choices as samples accumulate. Theoretically, we prove that the estimator roughly matches an oracle cold-start MSE under a correct prior, while remaining asymptotically consistent regardless of the quality of the LIP. Empirically, we validated the framework on a descriptive (Gaussian estimation), a predictive (C-MAPSS dataset), and a prescriptive task (MuJoCo hopper).