Calibration Collapse Under Sycophancy Fine-Tuning: How Reward Hacking Breaks Uncertainty Quantification in LLMs

In this paper, we consider the setting where large language models (LLMs) are trained using reinforcement learning (RL) to simultaneously improve reasoning accuracy and verbalize their confidence. Our reward scheme uses two functions for rewarding confidence verbalized by the LLM: one for correct answers and the other for incorrect answers. If poorly designed, such a scheme may incentivize an LLM to answer incorrectly in order for its confidence to be calibrated, a phenomenon we term confidence reward hacking. We introduce the notion of non-hackable confidence reward schemes and provide methods for constructing them. We show that selective confidence reward hacking can arise in practical datasets under hackable reward schemes while non-hackable reward schemes are resistant to hacking. Finally, we place some of these schemes along an overconfidence-underconfidence spectrum for RL-based confidence calibration and demonstrate experimentally that they tend to exhibit the corresponding calibration biases relative to other schemes in the spectrum. The code of our experiments is available in https://anonymous.4open.science/r/rl-confidence-calibration-9ED4/README.md.

As large language models (LLMs) are deployed in consequential settings such as medical question answering and legal reasoning, the ability to estimate when their outputs are likely to be correct is essential for safe and reliable use, requiring well-calibrated uncertainty. Standard reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) trains models with a binary correctness reward that is indifferent to confidence, providing no penalty for confident but wrong predictions and thereby degrading calibration. Recent work addresses this by training models to produce verbalized confidence scores alongside answers and rewarding agreement with correctness. However, verbalized confidence is calibrated at the token level and thus exhibits inconsistency across textual variations with same semantic meaning. We propose Calibration with Semantic Reward (CSR), a framework that calibrates language models directly in semantic space without a verbalized confidence interface. CSR combines the correctness reward with a novel semantic calibration reward that encourages exploitation among correct rollouts by promoting semantic agreement, and exploration among incorrect ones by discouraging spurious consistency. Experiments across three model families on HotpotQA (in-distribution) and TriviaQA, MSMARCO, and NQ-Open (out-of-distribution) show that CSR consistently achieves lower ECE and higher AUROC than verbalized-confidence baselines across nearly all settings, reducing ECE by up to $40\%$ and improving AUROC by up to $31\%$ over verbalized-confidence baselines, with calibration behavior generalizing robustly across all four evaluation settings.

Existing calibration methods for Large Language Models (LLMs) often overlook a critical dimension of trustworthiness: a model's {\em behavioral robustness} to irrelevant or misleading information. In this paper, we argue that a model's true confidence should reflect its stability under cognitive pressure. We introduce CaliDist, a novel post-hoc calibration approach that directly measures and penalizes a model's susceptibility to distraction. CaliDist quantifies how an LLM's predictions and uncertainty change when its input prompt is perturbed with semantic distractors. This stability (or lack thereof) signal is then used to adaptively scale the model's initial confidence score. Our extensive experiments on seven Natural Language Understanding classification benchmarks using six distinct LLMs show that CaliDist consistently achieves lower Expected Calibration Error (ECE) and Brier Score compared with strong baselines. Remarkably, our method reduces the ECE from 23% to 7% on average--a relative improvement of 70%--demonstrating that behavioral stability is a powerful signal for calibration. We make our code and datasets available at github.com/m-anas-j/CaliDist.