Synthetic Tabular Generators Fail to Preserve Behavioral Fraud Patterns: A Benchmark on Temporal, Velocity, and Multi-Account Signals

Imbalanced datasets pose a difficulty in fraud detection, as classifiers are often biased toward the majority class and perform poorly on rare fraudulent transactions. Synthetic data generation is therefore commonly used to mitigate this problem. In this work, we propose the Clustered Embedding Diffusion-Transformer (EmDT), a diffusion model designed to generate fraudulent samples. Our key innovation is to leverage UMAP clustering to identify distinct fraudulent patterns, and train a Transformer denoising network with sinusoidal positional embeddings to capture feature relationships throughout the diffusion process. Once the synthetic data has been generated, we employ a standard decision-tree-based classifier (e.g., XGBoost) for classification, as this type of model remains better suited to tabular datasets. Experiments on a credit card fraud detection dataset demonstrate that EmDT significantly improves downstream classification performance compared to existing oversampling and generative methods, while maintaining comparable privacy protection and preserving feature correlations present in the original data.

Synthetic sequential tabular data are increasingly used for privacy-preserving data sharing and research, yet conventional tabular metrics often overlook temporal structure. Existing single-table and relational evaluation protocols largely collapse records into static distributions, leaving key temporal properties insufficiently evaluated. We introduce Seq2Synth, a unified benchmark for assessing these properties. Its taxonomy characterizes temporal and schema properties to determine applicable evaluations, covering timestamp, cross-sectional, longitudinal, and structural fidelity, alongside trajectory-aware utility and privacy. Across seven core datasets from a 13-dataset benchmark and eight generators, models with near-perfect static fidelity still violate basic temporal constraints, producing duplicate timestamps, irregular intervals, and incomplete observation grids. Moreover, static and temporal-aware rankings diverge substantially, showing that temporal fidelity must be evaluated directly rather than inferred from static or relational scores. Project page and online appendices are available at: https://seq2synth.github.io/.

Synthetic tabular data generation addresses data scarcity and privacy constraints in a variety of domains. Tabular Prior-Data Fitted Network (TabPFN), a recent foundation model for tabular data, has been shown capable of generating high-quality synthetic tabular data. However, TabPFN is autoregressive: features are generated sequentially by conditioning on the previous ones, depending on the order in which they appear in the input data. We demonstrate that when the feature order conflicts with causal structure, the model produces spurious correlations that impair its ability to generate synthetic data and preserve causal effects. We address this limitation by integrating causal structure into TabPFN's generation process through two complementary approaches: Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG)-aware conditioning, which samples each variable given its causal parents, and a partially directed acyclic graph (PDAG)-based strategy for scenarios with partial causal knowledge. We evaluate these approaches on controlled benchmarks and six CSuite datasets, assessing structural fidelity, distributional quality, and Average Treatment Effect (ATE) preservation. Across most settings, DAG-aware conditioning improves the quality and stability of synthetic data relative to vanilla TabPFN. Under partial causal knowledge, the oracle partially directed acyclic graph (oracle-PDAG), which orients only the edges into the colliders, shows moderate gains, while the benefit of a Completed Partially Directed Acyclic Graph (CPDAG) discovered from data depends on how well the causal structure is recovered. These results indicate that reliable causal structure, even partial, can be injected into TabPFN at inference time, without parameter updates, to improve synthetic data quality.