Rare Event Analysis via Stochastic Optimal Control

Sampling transitions between metastable states is a central problem in dynamical systems theory and molecular dynamics in particular. A key challenge is the existence of high free-energy barriers that separate the states, making transitions extremely rare. Recent machine learning-based methods cast transition path sampling (TPS) as an optimal stochastic control (OSC) problem over a fixed time horizon, and parameterize the drift bias via a neural network trained by simulation-in-the-loop, requiring repeated biased rollouts. To address computational and performance guarantee issues of these models, we propose a new approach for the problem based on Koopman operators. Because Koopman operators are linear, their leading eigenfunctions reveal the metastable sets and provide an estimate of the committor function with no transition path information required. Furthermore, we formulate TPS as an OSC problem up to an exit time. Our time horizon is the first hitting time of the target set, and our running cost penalizes time spent in nonreactive regions by encoding the estimated committor function. We derive the optimal controller in closed form and approximate it in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). This reduces the problem of constructing the optimal controller to solving a single equality-constrained quadratic program, whose solution can be characterized by a linear Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) system. On the two-channel double well and alanine dipeptide, our controller increases the fraction of trajectories reaching the target from 0% to 99.8% within 1000 steps, and from 0% to 93% within 1ps, respectively.

Transition path sampling (TPS) aims to efficiently generate rare molecular transition trajectories between metastable states and is essential for understanding biomolecular mechanisms. Beyond traditional molecular dynamics (MD)-based sampling, machine learning has become central to state-of-the-art TPS. One major class of methods learns control forces during explicit MD rollouts. By preserving the underlying molecular dynamics, these methods tend to produce more physically plausible trajectories than endpoint-conditioned generators that construct paths directly. However, rollout-based control methods have been reported to exhibit unstable and strongly seed-dependent performance. We recast rollout-based control as learning a path-space proposal distribution and investigate stochasticity placement as a design choice for improving exploration and optimization robustness. We develop two stochastic policies: FS-TPS, which directly parameterizes a state-dependent Gaussian distribution over the control policy output, and LaS-TPS, which samples a compact latent control variable and decodes it into structured, cross-atom-correlated force variation. We conduct extensive multi-seed experiments on three biomolecular systems of increasing size: alanine dipeptide, chignolin, and BBL, a fast-folding protein. Stochastic policies consistently improve transition success and path quality over deterministic-policy baselines while substantially reducing sensitivity to random initialization.

Path sampling methods generate ensembles of reactive trajectories connecting metastable states, but extracting mechanistic insight from these data remains nontrivial. We introduce Flux Matching, a framework that learns two complementary objects directly from reactive trajectory data: a current velocity $u(z)$, whose streamlines trace the dominant reaction pathways, and a scalar potential $h(z)$, obtained from a weighted Helmholtz-Hodge decomposition of the reactive current, that serves as a data-driven reaction coordinate. Both minimize quadratic functionals over the reactive path ensemble, analogous to the flow matching loss in generative modeling, and require no knowledge of the underlying dynamics or stationary distribution. Unlike committor-based methods, $u$ and $h$ remain well-defined under projection onto non-Markovian collective variables, and their level sets in turn provide adaptive interfaces for improved sampling with enhanced sampling methods. Flux Matching is validated through the generation of current velocity trajectories and rate constant calculations on molecular systems.