Calibrate-Then-Delegate: Safety Monitoring with Risk and Budget Guarantees via Model Cascades

Recent research on Large Language Model (LLM) safety has widely adopted guardrails to identify unsafe LLM outputs. Existing guardrails typically formulate safety assessment as a deterministic classification task, mapping a discrete token sequence to a discrete safety label. However, this paradigm has two limitations: First, safety assessment is inherently an uncertain problem, particularly during the early generation state. Second, relying solely on discrete token sequences discards the rich probabilistic information embedded in the LLM output distribution. To address these limitations, we propose the first completely probabilistic architecture-agnostic guardrail ProbGuard to leverage the LLM early output distributional signals for estimating and calibrating the safety probability, thereby enabling early stopping of unsafe ongoing outputs. Specifically, given an LLM's generated prefix distribution, we formulate the safety risk as the unsafe probability of its continued generation dynamics and estimate this risk by Monte-Carlo sampling. Through post-training on the distributional signals and calibrated safety risk, ProbGuard achieves the best calibration performance across all nine model--dataset combination settings, reducing the average Brier score and ECE by 79.6% and 71.9%, respectively, over the best baseline. ProbGuard further limits the attack success rate to at most 1% across six representative jailbreak attacks after observing the LLM early output distributions from only the first ten decoding steps.

Deploying large language models in user-facing systems requires efficient output safety filtering. Existing approaches typically rely on a separate moderation model applied after generation, which doubles inference cost and only detects violations after generation completes. We observe that the signal needed for moderation is already present in the model hidden states. Based on this, we train lightweight token-level probes that operate directly on internal activations, producing per-token safety scores that can be aggregated for both offline evaluation and online intervention. The probe reuses activations from the generator and requires no additional forward pass, enabling sub millisecond per-token safety checks inside the decoding loop. A probe applied to a single mid layer recovers most decisions of a strong guard model, acting as a low cost surrogate optimized for latency rather than accuracy. In streaming settings, it can halt or modify unsafe outputs before they are fully generated, replacing end of sequence moderation with continuous token level monitoring. Compared to post hoc and streaming guard models, our method achieves orders of magnitude lower compute overhead with minimal latency cost. We also provide a practical deployment recipe, including layer selection, aggregation strategy, probing frequency, and triggering thresholds. Finally, we show that the probe linear component corresponds to a direction in residual space, enabling both detection and activation steering at negligible cost.

Autonomous systems increasingly rely on Large Language Models (LLMs) yet the safety infrastructure surrounding these models introduces latency and compute overhead. This limits utility in resource-constrained, time-critical deployments. Existing external guardrail models remain blind to the model's internal workings, creating a fundamental assurance gap. We ask: does the model already know when the content is harmful? We extract activations from LLaMA-3.1-8B and train lightweight MLP classifier probes (12.6M parameters) to detect harmful prompts. Evaluated on WildJailbreak, Beavertails, and AEGIS 2.0, our probes achieve F1 scores of 99%, 83%, and 84%, respectively competitive with 1000x larger guard models while cutting latency and compute costs.