Organizations: School of Information Science and Engineering, Yunnan University, Kunming, China · Yunnan Key Laboratory of Intelligent Systems and Computing, Kunming, China
Abstract
Large Language Models (LLMs) achieve strong performance through extended inference-time deliberation, yet how their reasoning failures arise remains poorly understood. By analyzing model-generated reasoning trajectories, we find that errors are not uniformly distributed but often originate from a small number of early transition points, after which reasoning remains locally coherent but globally incorrect. These transitions coincide with localized spikes in token-level entropy, and alternative continuations from the same intermediate state can still lead to correct solutions. Based on these observations, we introduce GUARD, a targeted inference-time framework that probes and redirects critical transitions using uncertainty signals. Empirical evaluations across multiple benchmarks confirm that interventions guided by these failure dynamics lead to more reliable reasoning outcomes. Our findings highlight the importance of understanding when and how reasoning first deviates, complementing existing approaches that focus on scaling inference-time computation.
Failures in language model reasoning emerge through distinct processes that leave identifiable signatures in the reasoning trace. We characterize these failures using token-level uncertainty signals, finding they arise through two empirically distinguishable processes. The first is committed failure, in which a model locks onto an incorrect reasoning path early in its trace. A central diagnostic signature is the commitment point, beyond which considering additional tokens hurt rather than help failure detection. In the second, persistent uncertainty, uncertainty instead accumulates throughout, and the full trace is needed to best distinguish failing from successful completions. These signatures reproduce across 23 model-dataset configurations, with the framework's falsifiable predictions holding in 20 of 23 cases, well above chance across both failure modes. Finally, we demonstrate our failure mode framework has direct implications for self-consistency, identifying when uncertainty signals complement it and when it can be selectively skipped. These results offer a foundation for understanding when LLM reasoning failures become detectable and for adapting detection strategies accordingly.
Tanvi Thoria, Kiana Jafari, Marc R. Schlichting +1
Chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning improves large language model (LLM) performance while also providing an observable interface to the model's reasoning process. Existing approaches that leverage verbalized CoTs to monitor reasoning correctness, however, largely evaluate the semantic correctness or consistency of individual intermediate steps, rather than how the reasoning process evolves across the trace. As a result, failures distributed across the reasoning trajectory, rather than those localized to a single incorrect step, remain comparatively underexplored. Furthermore, verbalized CoTs need not faithfully reflect the model's internal reasoning, motivating analyses that do not treat individual statements as literal accounts of internal computation. In this work, we therefore ask whether the dynamics of visible CoT can be leveraged to systematically distinguish successful from failed reasoning without assuming such semantic faithfulness. We study a range of LLMs on verifiable Boolean satisfiability tasks with variable complexity, enabling controlled comparisons near each model's capability frontier. Tagging CoT sentences by reasoning function reveals premature verification collapse on SAT problems: incorrect traces enter clause checking earlier, repeat similar operations, and finalize sooner. On UNSAT problems, models presumptuously move towards incorrect SAT conclusions, checking candidate assignments rather than deriving contradictions across constructed cases. Subsequently, a targeted proof-search prompt intervention raises Llama3-70B accuracy from 13.3% to 85%, correcting 84.6% of these errors. These results show that capability failures can manifest as distributed, task-dependent changes in the structure of visible reasoning, and that CoT dynamics agnostic to whether the verbalized trace reflects the model's internal computations can help diagnose and correct failures.
While LLMs demonstrate impressive reasoning capabilities, they remain fragile in multi-step logical deduction, where a single transition error can propagate through the entire reasoning chain, leading to unstable performance. In this work, we identify logical connectives as primary points of this structural fragility. Through empirical analysis, we show that connective tokens function as high entropy forking points, at which models frequently struggle to determine the correct logical direction. Motivated by this observation, we hypothesize that intervening in logical connective selection can guide LLMs toward more correct logical direction, thereby improving the overall reasoning chain. To validate this hypothesis, we propose a multi-layered framework that intervenes specifically at these logic-critical junctions in the reasoning process. Our framework includes (1) Gradient-based Logical Steering to guide LLMs internal representations towards valid reasoning subspaces, (2) Localized Branching to resolve ambiguity via targeted look-ahead search, and (3) Targeted Transition Preference Optimization, a surgical reinforcement learning objective that selectively optimizes single-token preferences at logical pivots. Crucially, by concentrating intervention solely on logic-critical transitions, our framework achieves a favorable accuracy--efficiency trade-off compared to global inference time scaling methods like beam search and self-consistency.