Abstract
Speculative decoding accelerates large language model (LLM) inference. It uses a small draft model to propose a tree of future tokens. A larger target model then verifies these tokens in a single batched forward pass. Despite the growing body of work on speculative methods, the degree to which the cognitive characteristics of a task affect acceptance probability remains largely unexplored. We present an empirical study of tree-based speculative decoding acceptance dynamics. Our study spans four well-established NLP benchmark domains: code generation, mathematical reasoning, logical reasoning, and open-ended chat. For this, we use TinyLlama-1.1B as the draft model against Llama-2-7B-Chat-GPTQ as the target. Over 99,768 speculative nodes collected from 200 prompts, we derive per-domain acceptance rates, expected accepted lengths, depth-acceptance profiles, and entropy-acceptance correlations. We find that task type is a stronger predictor of acceptance than tree depth. Furthermore, only the chat domain consistently yields an expected accepted length exceeding 1.0 token per step. We also show that the entropy-acceptance correlation is consistently negative but weak across all domains (rho in [-0.20, -0.15]). Counterintuitively, chat produces the highest entropy yet the highest acceptance rate. We attribute this divergence to the lexical predictability of RLHF-aligned register. These findings have direct implications for domain-aware speculation budgets and draft-model selection strategies. Index Terms--speculative decoding, large language model inference, tree attention, draft model, acceptance probability, LLM efficiency
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Jinze Li, Yixing Xu, Guanchen Li +7
Jun 29, 2026cs.LG
Speculative decoding accelerates language model inference by using a fast drafter to propose candidate tokens that are then verified by a larger target model. Existing theory largely studies the stochastic, distribution-preserving setting, where the goal is to exactly sample from the target distribution. In contrast, many practical systems use greedy decoding, relaxed acceptance rules, or tree-based candidate sets, where success is governed by local ranking and threshold events rather than exact distributional equality. We develop a theory for these regimes. We identify that many common acceptance criteria have rejection regions that can be characterized as lower level sets of the target distribution. For these, we characterize the exact KL divergence required for rejection yielding exact certificates and sharp margin-based bounds for strict greedy decoding, additive and multiplicative relaxed acceptance, top-(m) relaxed criteria, and entropy-thresholded acceptance. We then extend the framework to greedy tree decoding, deriving exact and margin-only certificates for when the target greedy token remains covered by the drafter's top-(m) candidates. Finally, we evaluate the resulting certificates on Qwen3 models, showing that relaxed and tree-based criteria substantially enlarge the region of certified acceptance, especially on decoding steps with low target model distribution margin. These results complement existing distribution-preserving analyses of speculative decoding by characterizing the deterministic local acceptance events common in practical inference systems.
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Speculative decoding (SD) accelerates large language model (LLM) inference by using a lightweight draft model to propose tokens and a stronger target model to verify them. However, standard SD is mainly designed for acceleration, and its output quality is typically constrained by the target model. In this work, we propose Entropy-Aware Speculative Decoding (EASD), a lightweight and training-free extension of SD that improves reasoning quality through token-level entropy-guided rejection. EASD detects cases where both draft and target models exhibit high uncertainty while strongly overlapping in their top predictions. In such uncertain-agreement cases, EASD rejects the aligned token and resamples from the target distribution, preventing low-confidence errors from propagating. Experiments on challenging reasoning benchmarks show that EASD consistently improves accuracy over standard SD and reward-guided variants while maintaining comparable inference efficiency. Notably, EASD can surpass the standalone performance of the target model, suggesting that speculative decoding can serve not only as an acceleration method but also as an effective mechanism for improving reasoning quality. The code is available at https://github.com/ECNU-Text-Computing/EASD.
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