Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo

We study the problem of k-means clustering on large datasets. The state-of-the-art for the problem is given by coresets-based approaches, which build small weighted summaries of the input and derive approximate solutions with rigorous quality guarantees from them. One of the most popular and advanced approaches to derive coresets for k-means is sensitivity sampling. However, sensitivity sampling requires to compute the importance of each input point with respect to the whole dataset over all possible choices of centers. Since the exact computation of such quantities is unfeasible, current approaches work by approximating the sensitivity values. Nevertheless, the runtime of such approaches is still impractical for large datasets. In this work, we propose to reduce the runtime of sensitivity-based approaches for k-means by leveraging predictions to approximate the importance of input points. We first formally prove that current theoretical results on coresets construction via sensitivity sampling hold for coarser approximations of sensitivities compared to the one required by existing approaches. This implies that even fairly noisy predictors can be leveraged for sensitivity-sampling approaches. We then propose a natural predictor, which applies to the common scenario where clustering is performed (over time) on a sequence of datasets from the same problem. We prove that when the datasets in the sequence come from the same (unknown) distribution, centers resulting in a low error on one dataset can be used as predictions for sensitivity sampling in subsequent datasets, with guarantees on their quality. We perform an extensive experimental evaluation showing that our approach significantly improves, in terms of clustering cost vs runtime, over uniform sampling and state-of-the-art sensitivity sampling approaches when applied to sequences of datasets.

Big data clustering remains challenging: the Minimum Sum-of-Squares Clustering (MSSC) problem underlying K-means is NP-hard, and existing methods either reach poor local minima or require prohibitive metaheuristic hybrids. We target arbitrarily tall data: a fixed feature space may contain arbitrarily many, possibly infinitely many, observations, while the algorithm accesses only finite random samples. We propose Big-means++, an algorithm achieving scalability and global-search quality by curating inputs to MSSC optimization on big data. It orchestrates local K-means refinements into a data-native global search for big data clustering. Rather than optimizing the full-data MSSC objective, Big-means++ traverses sample-induced surrogate landscapes. Each sample defines a distinct empirical MSSC approximation with a perturbed local-optimum structure, turning sample-to-sample variation into a global-search mechanism. Unlike Big-means, a flowing-incumbent strategy propagates centroid state across empirical landscapes through K-means refinements on fresh samples without rollback to a best-so-far solution. This increases mobility and favors stable, high-quality configurations across approximations of the full-data structure. A new shaking mechanism varies sample size geometrically, broadening the surrogate landscapes explored across resolution scales, accounting for cluster imbalance, and improving solution quality. A competitive multi-agent system asynchronously explores independent sampled landscapes, transforming diverse stochastic trajectories into collective search intelligence. Automatic convergence detection stops each agent after attaining a high-quality solution but before further search risks degrading it, while providing a universal speed-quality control. Experiments on 22 datasets against 11 competing algorithms demonstrate the effectiveness, efficiency, and robustness of Big-means++.

The manifold hypothesis suggests a natural criterion for clustering: partition data according to the manifold component from which each point is drawn. Whether two components are separable depends on a geometric tradeoff: the ambient separation between components versus the largest gap in sampling. In practice, this tradeoff is rarely assessed explicitly, leading standard methods to over-commit to a single clustering assignment even when the data do not support a unique answer. We formalize this tradeoff by combining intrinsic manifold geometry (volume growth and reach) with sample-level quantities (fill distance and density), yielding a threshold phenomenon for mutual-$k$-nearest-neighbor graphs: when the offset-to-fill ratio exceeds a conservative upper threshold, component separation is preserved; below a lower threshold, components fuse. The gap between these thresholds defines a geometric uncertainty zone in which the number of clusters is not identifiable from the data. Nevertheless, conventional approaches still seek one: sweeping parameters (an engineering approach) or fitting a generative mixture model (a model-based approach). Rather than forcing a single estimate of the number of clusters, we propose Manifold-Based Clustering (MBC), which returns an explicit bracket interval to quantify the underlying data uncertainty. This bracket acts as an empirically calibrated diagnostic: it narrows when a single resolution is supported, widens when multiple resolutions coexist, and collapses to one when no separated structure is detectable. Empirically, we find that many real datasets lie within the uncertainty zone rather than admitting one clear answer. Our results suggest that ambiguity in cluster number is often intrinsic, and should be quantified rather than resolved.