Dynamic Risk Assessment by Bayesian Attack Graphs and Process Mining

In the evolving threat landscape, adversaries exploit software vulnerabilities to launch sophisticated attacks, challenging traditional defenses. Although databases like CVE and NVD provide detailed technical information, they often lack links to attacker behaviors such as tactics and techniques, limiting effective threat interpretation and response. This work bridges this gap by connecting vulnerabilities with behavioral patterns from the MITRE ATT&CK framework. We construct a CVE-TTP Knowledge Graph that links CVEs to tactics and techniques using classification and relation extraction. Transformer-based models are developed for behavior identification, with CySecBERT achieving macro F1-scores of 87.71% (techniques) and 96.16% (tactics). Also, we created an annotated dataset with 24,820 entities and 43,608 relations for entity and relation extraction. The pipeline-based approach achieves macro F1-scores of 0.86 (entity extraction) and 0.99 (relation extraction), while a span-based joint model achieves 0.78. These outputs are integrated into a Neo4j-based Cyber Threat Knowledge Graph, enabling structured visualization of vulnerabilities.

A single vulnerability in a widely used library can cascade through millions of dependent applications, yet more than half of vulnerability database entries contain missing or incorrect affected-library information. Existing automated approaches neglect the relational structure of vulnerability databases, treating identification as an isolated text retrieval problem. In this paper, we propose Athena, the first graph-based approach for vulnerability affected library identification. Athena models vulnerability databases as a knowledge graph and reformulates the identification problem as knowledge graph completion (KGC). It comprises three key modules: a Modeling module that constructs a security knowledge graph integrating CVEs, libraries, CWE weakness types, CPE products, and software ecosystems; a Completion module that applies a modular KGC backbone to predict missing affected libraries for a given CVE via link prediction; and a Re-ranking module that retrieves KGC candidates and rescores them using a fine-tuned LLM augmented with knowledge graph embeddings, jointly leveraging structural and textual information. Our experiments on VulLib demonstrate that Athena significantly outperforms four state-of-the-art baselines, achieving a 32% improvement in Avg. F1 over the best baseline (i.e., VulLibGen). Notably, our KGC backbone with only 110M parameters already surpasses VulLibGen's best configuration at 7B parameters, demonstrating the effectiveness of graph-based modeling; the re-ranking module then provides substantial further gains, consistently outperforming the best baseline across all evaluated LLM backbones.

AI agents are rapidly gaining capabilities that could significantly reshape cybersecurity, making rigorous evaluation urgent. A critical capability is exploitation: turning a vulnerability, which is not yet an attack, into a concrete security impact, such as unauthorized file access or code execution. Exploitation is a particularly challenging task because it requires low-level program reasoning (e.g., about memory layout), runtime adaptation, and sustained progress over long horizons. Meanwhile, it is inherently dual-use, supporting defensive workflows while lowering the barrier for offense. Despite its importance and diagnostic value, exploitation remains under-evaluated. To address this gap, we introduce ExploitGym, a large-scale, diverse, realistic benchmark on the exploitation capabilities of AI agents. Given a program input that triggers a vulnerability, ExploitGym tasks agents with progressively extending it into a working exploit. The benchmark comprises 898 instances sourced from real-world vulnerabilities across three domains, including userspace programs, Google's V8 JavaScript engine, and the Linux kernel. We vary the security protections applied to each instance, isolating their impact on agent performance. All configurations are packaged in reproducible containerized environments. Our evaluation shows that while exploitation remains challenging, frontier models can successfully exploit a non-trivial fraction of vulnerabilities. For example, the strongest configurations are Anthropic's latest model Claude Mythos Preview and OpenAI's GPT-5.5, which produce working exploits for 157 and 120 instances, respectively. Notably, even with widely used defenses enabled, models retain non-trivial success rates. These results establish ExploitGym as an effective testbed for exploitation and highlight the growing cybersecurity risks posed by increasingly capable AI agents.