A Multi-Plant Machine Learning Framework for Emission Prediction, Forecasting, and Control in Cement Manufacturing

Municipal solid waste incineration (MSWI) converts urban waste to energy but simultaneously emits carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide and multiple regulated air pollutants whose formation is tightly coupled within a single combustion system. Controlling these emissions across a network of diverse facilities poses a fundamentally different challenge from optimising a single plant: data-driven models trained at one site capture local statistical patterns that rarely survive transfer to another, because they lack the physical constraints and regime-level structure needed to generalise. Here we show that shared emission-control relationships can be identified across heterogeneous MSWI plants when physical conservation laws, operating-regime heterogeneity and carbon-pollutant coupling are treated jointly. We develop a carbon-pollutant mixture-of-experts (CPMoE) model that routes process observations through regime-specific expert networks under conservation-based regularisation, and combine it with physics-informed transfer learning to adapt a reference model to new facilities. Across 13 plants, CPMoE predicts six major pollutants and a composite system-level risk index with source-domain R2 of 0.668-0.904 and 0.666-0.970, respectively; after transfer to 12 target plants these values remain 0.661-0.842 and 0.610-0.841. Expert-utilisation patterns show that adaptation proceeds through structured regime re-weighting rather than re-learning from scratch. Embedding the transferred model in an offline digital twin and screening candidate operating adjustments against historical process records yields consistent risk-index reductions of 3.6-6.3% with simultaneous pollutant co-reductions in 94-100% of evaluated samples. These findings suggest a practical route toward transferable, system-level decision support for carbon-pollutant co-control in heterogeneous waste-to-energy networks.

Machine learning-based predictive emissions monitoring systems offer a practical alternative to direct emissions measurement, but their deployment across gas turbine fleets is challenging when emissions labels are available for only a small subset of assets. In this work, a trust-aware probabilistic framework is proposed for fleet-level gas turbine NOx prediction under limited labelled supervision. The framework combines a multi-head recurrent prediction model with learned confidence estimation, ensemble-based uncertainty quantification, auxiliary feature prediction, feature-space distance analysis, and operating-range diagnostics. These signals are calibrated on labelled data to produce interpretable per-sample trust scores, providing indicators of prediction reliability on unlabelled turbines, supporting the identification of predictions that should be treated with greater caution during fleet-level deployment. Confidence-based filtering reduces MAE from 0.202 at full coverage to 0.070 for the highest-confidence 10% of predictions, demonstrating that confidence estimates are meaningfully related to prediction error. Unlabelled and out-of-distribution samples exhibit increased uncertainty and reduced confidence, indicating that the framework responds appropriately to distributional shift. The results show that the proposed trust framework provides actionable reliability information for emissions prediction on unlabelled turbines, supporting more transparent and trustworthy deployment of PEMS across industrial fleets.

Establishing quantitative relationships among mix design, raw material properties, curing conditions, and performance remains a long-standing challenge in cementitious materials, particularly for alkali-activated materials with variable precursor and activator chemistry. Here, we curated the largest literature-derived alkali-activated slag (AAS) dataset to date, comprising over 3100 compressive strength records, 155 chemically distinct ground granulated blast-furnace slags (GGBSs), and 24 attributes incorporating precursor chemistry, fineness, and reactivity. Multiple machine learning (ML) algorithms were benchmarked across progressively enriched feature scenarios, demonstrating that integrating GGBS compositions, fineness, curing conditions, and specimen geometry improves predictive performance. The average metal oxide dissociation energy (AMODE), a physically interpretable representation of precursor reactivity, provides a compact alternative descriptor to explicit oxide compositions while enabling comparable predictive performance. Model interpretation revealed physically consistent trends from heterogeneous data, including non-monotonic effects of Na2O dosage and silicate modulus, reduced predicted strength at higher water content and larger specimen size, and coupled oxide-level effects more coherently represented by AMODE than by individual oxide contents. Statistically constrained design space exploration reveals reactivity-dependent trade-offs among strength, embodied CO2 emissions, and cost. The design maps identify high-strength regions with substantially lower CO2 emissions than OPC-based references at similar cost. Overall, this work demonstrates how reactivity-informed ML can extract physically meaningful trends from heterogeneous AAS data and guide source-dependent binder design. The curated dataset is publicly accessible to support advances in cement and concrete research.