Organizations: Univ. Toulouse, INSA Toulouse, CNRS UMR 5219, IMT, Toulouse, France · Météo-France, CNRS, Univ. Toulouse, CNRM, Toulouse, France · Cerfacs, CNRS/Cerfacs/IRD, CECI, Toulouse, France
Abstract
As the demand to integrate Artificial Intelligence into high-stakes environments continues to grow, explaining the reasoning behind neural-network predictions has shifted from a theoretical curiosity to a strict operational requirement. Our work is motivated by the explanations of autoregressive neural predictions on dynamic physical fields, as in weather forecasting. Gradient-based feature attribution methods are widely used to explain the predictions on such data, in particular due to their scalability to high-dimensional inputs. It is also interesting to remark that gradient-based techniques such as SmoothGrad are now standard on images to robustify the explanations using pointwise averages of the attribution maps obtained from several noised inputs. Our goal is to efficiently adapt this aggregation strategy to dynamic physical fields. To do so, our first contribution is to identify a fundamental failure mode when averaging perturbed attribution maps on dynamic physical fields: stochastic input perturbations do not induce stationary amplitude noise in attribution maps, but instead cause a geometric displacement of the attributions. Consequently, pointwise averaging blurs these spatially misaligned features. To tackle this issue, we introduce WassersteinGrad, which extracts a geometric consensus of perturbed attribution maps by computing their entropic Wasserstein barycenter. The results, obtained on regional weather data and a meteorologist-validated neural model, demonstrate promising explainability properties of WassersteinGrad over gradient-based baselines across both single-step and autoregressive forecasting settings.
Understanding model predictions is essential for physical applications, where outputs often inform safety-critical decisions, such as structural load assessment, weather warnings, and clinical diagnosis. Shapley values satisfy many desirable properties as an attribution method, but their computational cost during inference hinders their practical use. Current amortized explainers, such as FastSHAP, are limited to homogeneous inputs, which is problematic for physical applications where data often comes from irregular grids and geometries. We introduce OperatorSHAP, a grid-agnostic attribution method and training procedure that allows us to train FastSHAP-like explainers for neural operators. We establish a theoretical framework for attributions in function space, connecting to Aumann-Shapley values. We further show that OperatorSHAP's explanations are consistent with state-of-the-art discrete Shapley values across resolutions and transfer across grid sizes without retraining.
Joshua Stiller, Santo M. A. R. Thies, Felix Czaja +1
Could it be that AI weather models are solving physical equations, although they may not be the equations used by conventional NWP models? We compute correlations of forecast skill and Centered Kernel Alignment, providing evidence that different AI weather models represent the atmosphere in similar ways, despite differences in architecture and capacity. We argue that the architecture and training of the AI models constrains the form of the physical laws that they might simulate. In particular, we propose that the models implement a particle description of the atmosphere, where the latent variables at each mesh point correspond to the position of a particle in the high dimensional latent space. We hypothesize that the movement of the particles follows a gradient flow in the latent space towards a minimum of a learned free energy functional. Analysis of the GraphCast and Aurora models show that they make changes on large spatial scales in the early processor layers and move to smaller scale with increasing layer depth, consistent with the gradient flow hypothesis.
Feature attribution is central to diagnosing and trusting deep neural networks, and Integrated Gradients (IG) is widely used due to its axiomatic properties. However, IG can yield unreliable explanations when the integration path between a baseline and the input passes through regions with noisy gradients. While Guided Integrated Gradients reduces this sensitivity by adaptively updating low-gradient-magnitude features, input-space guidance still produces intermediate inputs that deviate from the data manifold. To address this limitation, we propose \emph{Manifold-Aligned Guided Integrated Gradients} (MA-GIG), which constructs attribution paths in the latent space of a pre-trained variational autoencoder. By decoding intermediate latent states, MA-GIG biases the path toward the learned generative manifold and reduces exposure to implausible input-space regions. Through qualitative and quantitative evaluations, we demonstrate that MA-GIG produces faithful explanations by aggregating gradients on path features proximal to the input. Consequently, our method reduces off-manifold noise and outperforms prior path-based attribution methods across multiple datasets and classifiers. Our code is available at https://github.com/leekwoon/ma-gig/.