SMSI: System Model Security Inference: Automated Threat Modeling for Cyber-Physical Systems

Autonomous cyber-physical systems (CPS) sit at the intersection of Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) and data-driven Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence (ML/AI), yet no integrated Systems Engineering (SE) methodology natively spans both. We address this gap with IDDMBSE, an Integrated Data-Driven and Model-Based Systems Engineering methodology that extends the rigorous MBSE V-process with a data-driven loop at every step, anchored in SysML, the autonomy stack, and a hybrid model-based plus data-driven trade-off architecture. We instantiate IDDMBSE as an interoperable, open-source tool chain: PERFECT, which maps SysML system architectures to executable ROS autonomy stacks for scalable performance evaluation; TRADES-X, which decomposes design-space exploration into a model-based optimization stage followed by a data-driven evaluation stage; and VERITAS, which combines formal, data-driven, and runtime verification into a single assurance workflow. We demonstrate IDDMBSE on a Trusted Autonomous Ground Robot across its development lifecycle, spanning sensor-suite selection, risk-sensitive path planning, behavior-tree task verification, conformal-prediction-based robust perception, and assured multi-robot coordination, all exercised in a contested-terrain Isaac Sim test range that we release with the tool chain. We close by sketching how IDDMBSE is being re-formulated on SysML v2 / KerML foundations to enable language-native composability and tighter ML/AI integration.

Threat modeling is essential for secure software development, yet manual analysis of cloud-native architectures is slow and demands scarce security expertise. We present ThreatForest, a multi-agent system that generates structured attack trees from source code repositories, maps attack steps to adversary tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs) from a pluggable set of frameworks (MITRE ATT&CK, CAPEC, and cloud-specific threat matrices), and synthesizes actionable mitigations. ThreatForest decomposes threat modeling into a multi-stage agent pipeline -- repository analysis, context refinement, threat generation, parallel attack-tree construction with TTP mapping and mitigation synthesis, and report generation -- orchestrated as a directed graph with deterministic verification gates, bounded retries, and three human-in-the-loop validation points. A domain-specific sentence-transformer maps each attack step to candidate techniques by cosine similarity; we show empirically that this embedding stage, not the surrounding pipeline, is the dominant accuracy bottleneck. We evaluate ThreatForest across seven application domains on a sixteen-dimension rubric, scored by a panel of independent LLM raters with an adversarial verification pass and expert review. Panel-measured quality reaches 0.63-0.68 (on a 0-1 scale) for threat statements, attack trees, and mitigations, but only 0.29 for embedding-only TTP mapping -- a gap stable across all seven domains that isolates the binding constraint. A controlled single-call baseline on the same model more than doubles mapping defensibility, pinning the limitation on the embedding encoder rather than the multi-agent design. To our knowledge, ThreatForest is the first end-to-end system that turns a code repository into TTP-mapped attack trees with evidence-based mitigations across adversary frameworks, with a reusable framework for benchmarking such systems.

Multi-agent systems powered by large foundation models (LFMs) are increasingly deployed to control industrial robots through natural language, creating deployments in which security failures produce physical consequences. We analyse this threat landscape through Cobot-Claw, a deployed four-agent system for UR3e robotic arm control, and identify five attack classes specific to agentic cyber-physical systems. We propose ZTPM, a Zero Trust Policy Model comprising 25 typed primitives across five enforcement domains with Physical Impact Tiers as a runtime policy dimension. An empirical evaluation across 60 execution traces on two LFM backends provides initial evidence that actuation parameter selection is model-dependent and non-deterministic, motivating the need for policy-level enforcement at the physical actuation boundary.