HotComment: A Benchmark for Evaluating Popularity of Online Comments

Predicting social media popularity requires understanding both the intrinsic appeal of content and the external context that determines how it is exposed to users. Existing methods focus on content signals but do not separate them from exposure-related patterns, which causes the learned representations to absorb platform-specific visibility effects and weakens both interpretability and cross-platform transfer. This paper introduces OmniTrend, a unified framework that models popularity as the joint outcome of content attractiveness and contextual exposure. The content module learns cross-modal representations from visual, audio, and textual cues to quantify intrinsic appeal, while the context module estimates exposure from exogenous signals such as posting time, author activity, topical trends, and retrieval-based neighborhood statistics. OmniTrend learns separate predictors for content attractiveness and contextual exposure and integrates them in the final popularity estimate, which makes the role of each factor explicit and supports robust transfer across image and video platforms.

Social media popularity prediction aims to forecast the future reach or influence of online content from early-stage observations. Accurate prediction enables key downstream applications, such as advertising optimization and strategic content planning by users, creators, and platforms. Despite substantial progress, existing popularity prediction works often fail to jointly consider multimodal content and temporal social interaction signals. Moreover, the literature remains highly fragmented across datasets, modalities, observation windows, prediction targets, and evaluation protocols. This fragmentation prevents fair comparison and obscures a systematic understanding of how textual, visual, temporal, and interaction-based signals jointly shape popularity dynamics. To address these challenges, we introduce MMG-Pop, a Multi-modal Graph-based Popularity Prediction benchmark, which unifies datasets, modalities, temporal interaction signals, and representative baselines under a standardized evaluation protocol. Furthermore, we propose MMG-PopNet, a unified multi-modal graph-based network that jointly models the aforementioned multi-modal signals and graph-structured social interactions. Extensive experiments on MMG-Pop, comprising four datasets across Bluesky and Reddit platforms, demonstrate the superior performance of MMG-PopNet and yield new insights into cross-platform training generalization, multi-task prediction benefits, multi-modality contributions, and LLM prediction limitation. These findings establish a unified foundation for future research on social dynamics modeling and intervention under heterogeneous modalities and socially-aware agentic ecosystem paradigms.

Social media are shifting towards pluralism -- community-governed platforms where groups define their own norms. What violates rules in one community may be perfectly acceptable in another. Can AI models help moderate such pluralistic communities? We formalize the task as a multiple-choice problem, mirroring how human moderators operate in the real world: given a comment and its surrounding context, identify which specific rule, if any, is violated. We introduce PluRule, a multimodal, multilingual benchmark for detecting 13,371 rule violations across 1,989 Reddit communities spanning 2,885 rules in 9 languages. Using this benchmark, we show that state-of-the-art vision-language models struggle significantly: even GPT-5.2 with high reasoning performs only slightly better than a trivial baseline. We also find that bigger models and increased context provide marginal gains, and universal rules like civility and self-promotion are easier to detect. Our results show that moderation of pluralistic communities on social media is a fundamental challenge for language models. Our code and benchmark are publicly available.