Visual Chart Representations for Cryptocurrency Regime Prediction: A Systematic Deep Learning Study

Bitcoin price prediction on sub-daily timescales is a hard open problem in computational finance. Bitcoin exhibits fat-tailed returns, non-stationary dynamics, and a price discovery process influenced by social discourse on Reddit and Twitter. Conventional approaches fuse OHLCV technical features with sentiment via static concatenation, applying identical fusion weights regardless of market state. This is inconsistent with the behavioural finance literature, which shows that retail sentiment is most predictive during volatile periods and noisy during calm ones. This paper proposes Regime-Aware Multi-Modal Learning (RAML), which conditions fusion of sentiment and price features on a dynamically detected binary market regime. Rolling 24-hour volatility partitions observations into stable and volatile regimes; a learnable sigmoid gate adjusts the weight of the sentiment embedding relative to the price embedding, trusting sentiment more during volatility and price dynamics more during stable phases. The system is evaluated on 3,491 hourly observations (July 2024-September 2025), combining Bitcoin OHLCV data with Reddit /r/Bitcoin FinBERT sentiment. Four models are compared - price-only BiLSTM, sentiment-only classifier, static-concatenation BiLSTM, and RAML - across 3-hour and 6-hour horizons, with an ablation study isolating the sentiment branch, regime detection, and adaptive fusion. RAML achieves macro-F1 of 0.5474 (3h) and 0.5513 (6h), with the highest AUC at 3 hours (0.5084), indicating better calibration. Ablation confirms every component is necessary, and replacing adaptive weighting with concatenation causes recall collapse at 6 hours (F1: 0.14). These results establish regime-conditioned adaptive fusion as a necessary design principle for multi-modal financial forecasting.

Rendering time series as chart images for CNN-based classification has become increasingly common in time-series classification (TSC). However, it remains unclear whether models learn underlying temporal patterns or rely on encoding-specific visual cues introduced by chart design. We present VEIL: a systematic study examining how chart encodings influence learned representations through complementary analyses of similarity, transferability, and attribution. Attention-guided training appears to mitigate this effect when encoding sensitivity is consistently identified across diagnostics, but provides limited or negative benefit when such signals are absent. These findings position VEIL within the broader question of how machines perceive visualizations -- extending graphical perception from human readers to vision models -- and show that visualization design choices shape learned representations in ways that warrant treating chart-based TSC as a representation and measurement problem rather than a simple modeling decision.

Time-series classification (TSC) has advanced significantly with deep learning, yet most models rely solely on raw numerical inputs, overlooking alternative representations. While texture-based encodings such as Gramian Angular Fields (GAF) and Recurrence Plots (RP) convert time series into 2D images, they often require heavy preprocessing and yield less intuitive representations. In contrast, chart-based visualizations offer more interpretable alternatives and show promise in specific domains; however, their effectiveness remains underexplored, with limited systematic evaluation across chart types, visual encoding choices, and datasets. In this work, we introduce VTBench, a systematic and extensible framework that re-examines TSC through multimodal fusion of raw sequences and chart-based visualizations. VTBench generates lightweight, human-interpretable plots -- line, area, bar, and scatter, providing complementary views of the same signal. We develop a modular architecture supporting multiple fusion strategies, including single-chart visual-numerical fusion, multi-chart visual fusion, and full multimodal fusion with raw inputs. Through experiments across 31 UCR datasets, we show that: (1) chart-only models are competitive in selected settings, particularly on smaller datasets; (2) combining multiple chart types can improve accuracy by capturing complementary visual cues; and (3) multimodal models improve or maintain performance when visual features provide non-redundant information, but may degrade accuracy when they introduce redundancy. We further distill practical guidelines for selecting chart types, fusion strategies, and configurations. VTBench establishes a unified foundation for interpretable and effective multimodal time-series classification.