CARD: Coarse-to-fine Autoregressive Modeling with Radix-based Decomposition for Transferable Free Energy Estimation

We present AquaGen, the first all-atom, explicit solvent, periodic-boundary-condition-aware generative model that produces molecular configurations from the Boltzmann distribution at a fraction of the cost of molecular dynamics (MD). This is in contrast with existing generative models that remove degrees of freedom by operating on coarse-grained, vacuum, or implicit solvent systems. Operating at this resolution allows for post-processing through force field energy evaluations and MD simulations, and enables the prediction of relevant properties in a gray-box manner (as ensemble averages of potential energy evaluations over generated samples). We demonstrate the utility of this paradigm on absolute hydration free energy (AHFE), producing estimates 4-10x faster and with comparable accuracy to standard GPU-based MD. By generating uncorrelated samples from alchemical Boltzmann distributions, we create more accurate, interpretable, and refinable ensemble predictions with calibrated uncertainty estimates, unlike regression methods which are entirely black-box predictors. Our approach also yields predictable benefits from increasing train- and test-time compute, realized by scaling model size and generating more samples, respectively. We believe that this approach demonstrates the utility of high-resolution ensemble generation for free energy estimation, with future potential to replace MD in tasks such as the prediction of lipophilicity, membrane permeability, or absolute binding free energy (ABFE) -- whose grounding and interpretability may be critical for the development of new drugs and materials.

Efficient sampling of molecular systems at thermodynamic equilibrium is a hallmark challenge in statistical physics. This challenge has driven the development of Boltzmann Generators (BGs), which allow rapid generation of uncorrelated equilibrium samples by combining a generative model with exact likelihoods and an importance sampling correction. However, modern BGs predominantly rely on normalizing flows (NFs), which either suffer from limited expressivity due to strict invertibility constraints (discrete time) or computationally expensive likelihoods (continuous time). In this paper, we propose Autoregressive Boltzmann Generators (ArBG) -- a novel autoregressive modelling framework -- that overcomes these limitations by departing from the flow-based BG paradigm. ArBG circumvents the topological constraints of flows and enables sequential inference-time interventions, while offering enhanced scalability by leveraging architectures effective in Large Language Models. We empirically demonstrate that ArBG leads to significant improvements over flow-based models across all benchmarks, but particularly in larger peptide systems such as the 10-residue Chignolin. Furthermore, we introduce Robin, a 132 million parameter transferable model trained with the ArBG framework which improves over the previous state-of-the-art, reducing the zero-shot energy error, E-W$_2$, on 8-residue systems by over 60$\%$. The code can be found at the following link: https://github.com/danyalrehman/autobg.

Molecular systems have many degrees of freedom, but their metastable behavior can often be described by a few collective variables. Identifying these variables and estimating free energies along them from limited simulation data remains a challenging, important problem. Separate short trajectories may sample different metastable states without capturing transitions or establishing their relative equilibrium populations. For unbiased trajectories generated with the same Hamiltonian at a single temperature, alternate methods based on histogram reweighting cannot correct this imbalance. Here we present SPIBER, which combines the State Predictive Information Bottleneck (SPIB) with Generative Flow Networks (GFlowNets). SPIB uses deep learning to approximate slow degrees of freedom through a past-future information bottleneck, retaining information needed to predict future metastable states. We show that this compression limits conditional entropy variations in populated regions, allowing conditional mean potential energies, which are much easier to calculate, to be used to approximate free energy differences. Given sufficient local sampling to estimate these energies, they define the target distribution for GFlowNets, energy-based generative samplers that sample according to estimated thermodynamic stability rather than observed populations. For a particle in a radial double-well potential, for alanine dipeptide, and for the nine-residue peptide AIB9, SPIBER recovers free energy differences between sampled metastable states to within one thermal energy unit of reference values. The method combines collective-variable learning and free energy estimation in up to four latent dimensions, without requiring converged state populations or additional molecular dynamics simulations.