Cross-Model Consistency of Feature Importance in Electrospinning: Separating Robust from Model-Dependent Features
Authors: Mehrab Mahdian, Ferenc Ender, Tamas Pardy
Organizations: Thomas Johann Seebeck Department of Electronics, Tallinn University of Technology, Tallinn, Estonia · Department of Electron Devices, Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Budapest, Hungary
Electrospinning is a highly sensitive fabrication process in which small variations in operating parameters can significantly influence fiber morphology and material performance. Machine learning (ML) methods are increasingly employed to model these process-structure relationships and to identify the relative importance of processing variables. However, most existing studies rely on a single ML model, implicitly assuming that the resulting feature importance is robust and reproducible. In this study, the consistency of feature importance across multiple ML model families was systematically evaluated using a curated dataset of 96 polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) electrospinning experiments. Twenty-one ML models representing linear, tree-based, kernel-based, neural network, and instance-based approaches were trained and compared. To provide a unified interpretability framework, SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) values were used to calculate feature importance consistently across all models. A rank-based statistical analysis was then performed to quantify inter-model agreement and assess the robustness of parameter rankings. The results demonstrate that predictive performance and interpretive reliability are fundamentally distinct properties. Although several models achieved comparable predictive accuracy, substantial differences were observed in their feature importance rankings. Solution concentration emerged as the most robust and consistently influential parameter (variability = 0), whereas flow rate and applied voltage exhibited high ranking variability (variability > 0.9), indicating strong model dependence. These findings suggest that feature importance derived from a single ML model may be unreliable, particularly for small experimental datasets, and highlight the importance of cross-model validation for achieving trustworthy interpretation in ML-assisted electrospinning research.
Explanations of machine learning models are usually judged by criteria that are hard to compare. We propose a simpler test: if an explanation really describes how a model uses its features, it should be possible to rebuild the model's predictions from it. We turn each explanation into a predictor by reading each feature's effect and adding them up, and measure how well that predictor reproduces the model on unseen data. Nothing is fitted, so the score reflects the explanation itself. The test applies to any explanation that can be written as a function of the features; we demonstrate it on partial dependence plots (PDP), accumulated local effects (ALE), SHAP and LIME. We prove that summing partial dependence curves gives the best possible additive summary of a model when its features are independent, and that this fails when they are dependent. Across 13 real datasets and 9 synthetic designs and four model families, which method scores best depends entirely on feature dependence: where features are independent SHAP is slightly worse than PDP, exactly as the theory predicts; on dependent real data SHAP leads. Some widely used quality metrics even prefer a damaged explanation to an intact one.
Feature attribution analysis is critical for interpreting machine learning models and supporting reliable data-driven decisions. However, feature attribution measures often exhibit stochastic variation: different train--test splits, random seeds, or model-fitting procedures can produce substantially different attribution values and feature rankings. This paper proposes a framework for incorporating stochastic nature of feature attribution and a robust attribution metric, RoSHAP, for stable feature ranking based on the SHAP metric. The proposed framework models the distribution of feature attribution scores and estimates it through bootstrap resampling and kernel density estimation. We show that, under mild regularity conditions, the aggregated feature attribution score is asymptotically Gaussian, which greatly reduces the computational cost of distribution estimation. The RoSHAP summarizes the distribution of SHAP into a robust feature-ranking criterion that simultaneously rewards features that are active, strong, and stable. Through simulations and real-data experiments, the proposed framework and RoSHAP outperform standard single-run attribution measures in identifying signal features. In addition, models built using RoSHAP-selected features achieve predictive performance comparable to full-feature models while using substantially fewer predictors. The proposed RoSHAP approach improves the stability and interpretability of machine learning models, enabling reliable and consistent insights for analysis.
Assessing the importance of individual features in Machine Learning is critical to understand the model's decision-making process. While numerous methods exist, the lack of a definitive ground truth for comparison highlights the need for alternative, well-founded measures. This paper introduces a novel post-hoc local feature importance method called Counterfactual Importance Distribution (CID). We generate two sets of positive and negative counterfactuals, model their distributions using Kernel Density Estimation, and rank features based on a distributional dissimilarity measure. This measure, grounded in a rigorous mathematical framework, satisfies key properties required to function as a valid metric. We showcase the effectiveness of our method by comparing with well-established local feature importance explainers. Our method not only offers complementary perspectives to existing approaches, but also improves performance on faithfulness metrics (both for comprehensiveness and sufficiency), resulting in more faithful explanations of the system. These results highlight its potential as a valuable tool for model analysis. Link to repository: https://github.com/EddieConti/CID