Gated Multimodal Learning for Interpretable Property Energy Performance Prediction and Retrofit Scenario Analysis

Residential energy estimates are often needed before detailed envelope characteristics, equipment efficiencies, infiltration, sensor, or billing data are available. This study quantifies the trade-off between predictive accuracy and input accessibility using two nationally representative U.S. residential-energy datasets: the survey-based Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) and the simulation-based ResStock dataset. Full-feature models were first used to establish dataset-specific performance benchmarks. For total-energy estimation, the models were subsequently restricted to ten low-burden variables obtainable from occupants, administrative records, or location-based weather data without an on-site energy audit. Among CatBoost, XGBoost, LightGBM, Random Forest, and Neural Networks, CatBoost consistently achieved the highest predictive performance for the full-feature analysis, reaching R2 = 0.90 for ResStock and R2 = 0.73 for RECS. When the feature set was restricted to ten homeowner-accessible inputs to simulate realistic deployment conditions, model performance converged to R2 = 0.61 for RECS and R2 = 0.62 for ResStock, showing that algorithmic complexity cannot fully compensate for missing physical and behavioral information. However, for a more homogeneous ResStock cohort consisting of single-family detached, natural-gas-heated homes in Climate Zone 6A constructed between 2000 and 2010, a reduced-input model improved accuracy to R2 = 0.85, demonstrating the value of targeted modeling for homogeneous populations. The results indicate that tree-based ensemble models can serve as high-fidelity emulators of national-scale residential energy datasets. However, careful consideration of feature availability, dataset origin (empirical vs. synthetic), and applicable use cases are also important.

Urban Building Energy Modeling plays a critical role in achieving the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals 7 and 11. Although existing studies based on satellite imagery and deep learning have achieved remarkable progress, many challenges exist: most existing studies are inherently predictive, failing to reflect the generative nature of urban planning; although generative AI and diffusion models have seen explosive growth in satellite imagery, they lack the urban functional generation (e.g., energy layer); third, aligned high-quality high-resolution building energy data with satellite imagery is limited and scarce. Here we propose SENSE (Satellite-based ENergy Synthesis for Sustainable Environment), a unified generative UBEM framework that jointly synthesizes realistic urban satellite imagery and aligned high-quality building energy consumption and height maps. By conditioning on road networks and urban density metrics, SENSE, based on a controllable diffusion model, leverages the knowledge learned by large vision models to generate urban building energy consumption and height information (annotations) in the latent space. Experiments across four cities (New York City, Boston, Lyon, Busan) demonstrate that SENSE achieves high visual fidelity and strong physical consistency, satisfying the ASHRAE standard metric. Experiments demonstrate that SENSE can generate enough annotated synthetic data using less than 20% labeled energy data, boosting downstream prediction performance by 10% IoU. Compared to SOTA urban energy prediction methods, SENSE significantly reduced prediction error (reduced 3%-11% NMBE and 1%-9% CVRMSE). This study offers an energy-efficiency urban planning and physical generation solution for urban science, energy science and building science. The dataset and code: https://huggingface.co/datasets/skl24/MUSE and https://github.com/kailaisun/GenAI4Urban-Energy/.

Open datasets and benchmarks for entity-level carbon-emission prediction remain fragmented across access, scale, granularity, and evaluation. We introduce GHGbench, an open dataset and benchmark for company- and building-level greenhouse-gas prediction. The company track contains 32,000+ company-year records from 12,000+ firms with Scope 1+2 and Scope 3 disclosures and financial/sectoral signals; the building track harmonises 491,591 building-year records from 13 open sources into a single schema across 26 metropolitan areas (10 U.S., 15 Australian, 1 Singaporean), with climate covariates and multimodal remote-sensing embeddings. GHGbench defines canonical splits with in-distribution and cross-region/city transfer as primary tasks and temporal hold-out plus short-horizon forecasting as supplementary appendix evidence; headline baselines span gradient-boosted trees, a tabular foundation model, MLP, FT-Transformer, and multimodal fusion, with an LLM panel as auxiliary, all evaluated under multi-seed paired-bootstrap tests. Three benchmark-level findings emerge: (i) building emissions are structurally harder than company emissions; (ii) the in-distribution to out-of-distribution gap dwarfs any within-model gap across both the company track and the building track, and a tabular foundation model is, to our knowledge, the first baseline to open a paired-bootstrap-significant gap over tuned trees on a multi-city building-emissions task; (iii) multimodal remote-sensing embeddings help precisely where tabular generalisation breaks. GHGbench also exposes catastrophic city transfer and the sector-factor lookup ceiling as systematic failure modes. Code and reconstruction recipes are available at GHGbench.