LLMSpace: Carbon Footprint Modeling for Large Language Model Inference on LEO Satellites

The carbon footprint of any deployed Large Language Model (LLM) accumulates during inference, where repeated use of the model substantially exceeds the one-time cost of fine-tuning. Yet most efficiency interventions target either pre-training scale or post-hoc compression. We ask whether folding a calibrated, differentiable energy surrogate into the fine-tuning objective can produce inference behavior that gains task accuracy at zero or near-zero carbon cost, a break-even configuration. We propose a joint loss mechanism with a per-model carbon-emission parameter, a linear surrogate over parameter norm, FLOP proxy, and a memory proxy, fit from on-hardware energy profiling. We fine-tune three architecturally distinct families: Gemma-2 2B, Llama-3.1 8B, and Qwen-2.5 14B, and evaluate inference F1 and CO$_2$ emissions on three MMLU subjects: abstract algebra, philosophy, and formal logic. We discover from several outcomes that the carbon term behaves as either harmful interference or beneficial regularization depending on the task structure. We position calibrated carbon-aware fine-tuning as a lightweight, drop-in regularizer with a non-empty but model and task-dependent break-even region. This is an ongoing work, and we will release our codebase soon.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have become increasingly prevalent in cloud-based platforms, propelled by the introduction of AI-based consumer and enterprise services. LLM inference requests in particular account for up to 90% of total LLM lifecycle energy use, dwarfing training energy costs. The rising volume of LLM inference requests is increasing environmental footprints, particularly carbon emissions and water consumption. To improve sustainability for LLM inference serving in cloud datacenter environments, we propose a novel multi-agent game-theoretic reinforcement learning framework called MARLIN to co-optimize time-to-first token (TTFT), carbon emissions, water usage, and energy costs associated with LLM inference. MARLIN demonstrates a reduction of at least 18% in TTFT, 33% in carbon emissions, 43% in water usage, and 11% in energy costs compared to state-of-the-art LLM inference management frameworks.

Leveraging continuous solar energy harvesting at high efficiency, space data centers are envisioned as a promising platform for executing energy-intensive large language models (LLMs). Recognizing this advantage, space and AI conglomerates (e.g., SpaceX, Google) are actively investing in this vision. One key challenge, however, is the efficient distributed deployment of a large-scale LLM in a satellite network due to the limited onboard computing and communication resources. This gives rise to a placement problem that involves partitioning and mapping model components to satellites such that the fundamentally different model architecture and network topology can be reconciled to ensure low-latency token generation. To address this problem, we present the Space Network of Mixture-of-Experts (SpaceMoE) framework targeting the distributed execution of a popular mixture-of-experts (MoE) model in space. The proposed placement strategies are two-level: (1) layer placement, which assigns MoE layers to satellite subnets; and (2) intra-layer expert placement, which assigns individual experts to satellites associated with the same layer/subnet. For layer placement, we exploit the ring-like communication pattern of autoregressive inference to partition the satellite constellation along the orbiting direction into subnets arranged on a ring, each hosting one MoE layer. Based on this architecture, we formulate and solve an optimization problem for intra-layer expert placement to map experts with heterogeneous activation probabilities onto satellites. The derived strategy reveals an intuitive principle: a frequently activated expert should be mapped to a satellite on a routing path with low expected latency. Experiments over a thousand-satellite constellation show that SpaceMoE achieves at least a threefold latency reduction compared with conventional random and ablation-based placement strategies.