iTRIALSPACE: Programmable Virtual Lesion Trials for Controlled Evaluation of Lung CT Models

A synthetic measurement of model competence is useful only if it survives the move to real data, yet the real labels that would verify it are exactly what medical imaging lacks. We ask whether transfer can be predicted in advance, label-free, and answer with a mechanism: on synthetic digital twins, competence that is donor-driven (a property of the transplanted nodule) survives the synthetic to real change of host, while host-driven competence (a property of the surrounding anatomy) need not. We test this on three lung CT vision-language tasks chosen to span that axis, across five public VLMs, four guidance conditions, and seven real datasets. The prediction holds in every case: presence and size orderings transfer (R2 >= 0.96), lobe does not; the split survives leave-source-out calibration, and the diagnostic names that boundary before any real label. TrialCouncil, a training-free council calibrated only on synthetic CT, confirms it by matching the best fixed model exactly where transfer is predicted. The contribution is not the router but the finding that transfer itself is predictable, label-free, from synthetic data alone.

While automated diagnosis systems have achieved remarkable success in computed tomography (CT)-based lung cancer screening, their development remains limited by the scarcity of diverse, annotated pulmonary nodule datasets. Diffusion-based generative models offer a promising strategy for data synthesis; however, many existing conditional approaches primarily optimize spatial reconstruction losses, which encourage voxel-wise similarity but may inadequately constrain lesion-level intensity distributions. As a result, these methods may produce over-smoothed texture profiles and underrepresent the distinct attenuation characteristics of different nodule subtypes, including solid, part-solid, and ground-glass nodules. To address this challenge, we propose a controllable latent diffusion model that synthesizes pulmonary nodules within full 3D CT volumes while accurately modeling nodule-specific intensity distributions. Specifically, rather than relying solely on spatial losses, we introduce a histogram-based regularization term that constrains voxel intensity distributions during the generative process. The model combines subtype, spatial mask, and Hounsfield unit (HU) histogram conditioning with the differentiable feature-space histogram regularization term to better align lesion-level intensity distributions, improving the visual plausibility and subtype consistency of synthesized nodules. Extensive experiments on lung CT data demonstrate that our framework achieves strong visual realism, validated through both quantitative metrics and a visual Turing test. Furthermore, when used for data augmentation, the generated nodules improve performance in downstream clinical tasks, particularly for underrepresented nodule subtypes, and show a potential benefit for subtype-informed malignancy classification.

Lung cancer remains the leading cause of cancer-related mortality worldwide, with survival outcomes critically dependent on early and accurate detection. When low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) findings are indeterminate, clinicians typically defer diagnosis pending follow-up CT imaging obtained up to 12 months later, inevitably delaying treatment for patients with malignant nodules. To address this clinical gap, we propose Nodule-Aligned Multimodal (Latent) Diffusion (NAMD), a novel generative framework that synthesizes one-year follow-up nodule CT images conditioned on the baseline CT scan, quantitative nodule biomarkers, and patient-level Electronic Health Records (EHR), enabling timely prediction of nodule malignant progression without requiring actual follow-up scans. NAMD introduces two key contributions: (i) a nodule-aligned latent space regularized so that embedding distances reflect clinically meaningful biomarker changes, and (ii) an LLM-driven multimodal conditioning mechanism encoding heterogeneous EHR data into the diffusion backbone. Evaluated on the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST), our method's synthetic follow-up images achieve an AUROC of 0.805 and an AUPRC of 0.346 for lung nodule malignancy prediction, outperforming both the baseline LDCT performance without virtual follow-up generation, and existing state-of-the-art conditional generation methods, while maintaining competitive image quality. These findings suggest that NAMD enables earlier and more accurate lung cancer diagnosis by capturing clinically meaningful features of nodule progression.