When Are Experts Misrouted? Counterfactual Routing Analysis in Mixture-of-Experts Language Models

Sparse mixture-of-experts (MoE) language models route each token to multiple experts, suggesting a geometric account of their benefit: co-selected experts should contribute distinct representation directions. Existing evidence often conflates route coherence, candidate quality, and candidate-by-context interaction. We distinguish these quantities using an Expert Subspace Separation Index (ESSI), matched-route residuals, and a prefix-controlled $2\times2$ factorial; frozen-route interventions and a controlled Top-$k$ study assess functional value. Three paired contrasts organize the findings. First, across six MoE architectures, expert subspaces overlap substantially, yet actual routes explain token representations better than matched alternatives. Second, across the 39 factorial cells in OLMoE, Mixtral, and DeepSeek, the selected candidate explains more of the residual representation than the strongest unselected rival in every cell, yet the actual prefix narrows this advantage throughout: all interactions are negative, and every 95% confidence interval lies below zero. Third, this geometric narrowing does not imply functional redundancy: adding later experts improves next-token prediction in 24 of 39 frozen-route comparisons, while the other 15 estimates are inconclusive; a controlled training study also favors Top-2 over Top-1 in all three seeds. We call this joint pattern coherent overlap: routing selects token-relevant experts from a shared geometric neighborhood, while useful multi-expert computation persists without disjoint linear coverage. Separating these quantities clarifies why geometric similarity alone cannot determine redundancy or pruning value.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models scale by activating only a small subset of experts per token. However, training such models remains challenging because top-$k$ routing is discrete and non-differentiable, requiring gradient estimators for expert selection whose design remains a central open problem. We introduce ProbMoE, a probabilistic routing framework that models expert selection as a distribution over cardinality-constrained expert subsets and formulates routing as probabilistic inference in this discrete subset space. We first propose ProbMoE Exact-$k$ routing, which samples $k$-expert subsets in the forward pass, and the backward pass uses gradients through each expert's exact marginal probability as a tractable surrogate for the true gradient. ProbMoE naturally generalizes to a dynamic-$k$ routing setting, where both training and inference constrain the routing cardinality to the same predefined range, allowing adaptive expert allocation per token. Across benchmarks and model backbones, ProbMoE Exact-$k$ achieves strong performance compared to competitive baselines, with improved expert utilization and routing diversity; ProbMoE Dynamic-$k$ achieves comparable performance with fewer activated experts.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architectures enable efficient model scaling, yet expert routing behavior across underrepresented languages remains poorly understood. We analyze routing dynamics in two architecturally distinct MoE models -- a pure Transformer (Qwen3-30B-A3B) and a hybrid Mamba-Transformer (Nemotron-3-Nano-30B-A3B) -- using Hebrew as a morphologically rich, low-resource testbed. Both pre-trained models exhibit \emph{deep-layer routing collapse}: usage entropy drops sharply in final layers and tokens concentrate on a narrow expert subset, a pattern largely absent for English. Continual pre-training (CPT) on balanced bilingual data substantially corrects this imbalance, increasing entropy and shifting routing toward shared, language-agnostic experts; supervised fine-tuning (SFT) alone achieves less complete correction. Extending the analysis to Japanese reveals quantitatively consistent collapse signatures, providing cross-linguistic evidence that the phenomenon is a systematic consequence of pre-training underrepresentation rather than any language-intrinsic property. Routing improvements correlate with consistent downstream benchmark gains, positioning routing entropy and expert specialization as principled diagnostics for multilingual capacity in MoE systems.