The Coupling Tax: How Shared Token Budgets Undermine Visible Chain-of-Thought Under Fixed Output Limits

Long Chain-of-Thought (CoT) traces can improve reasoning accuracy, but repeatedly generating them is costly for smaller or latency-constrained language models. This paper studies a practical alternative: produce a rich rationale once with a capable \emph{thinking} model, compress it, and reuse the compressed trace as context for a cheaper \emph{answering} model. We introduce CoT-X, an adaptive framework for cross-model CoT transfer. CoT-X segments reasoning traces into semantic units, scores their diagnostic and logical importance, selects budget-feasible evidence paths, and reconstructs a coherent compressed rationale for the answering model. On $7,501$ Japanese medical licensing questions spanning $10$ specialties, CoT-X improves accuracy over direct truncation by up to $40.5\%$ under the same token budget, with the largest gains at $64$--$256$ tokens. Across $64$ thinking--answering pairs from eight DeepSeek-R1 and Qwen3 models (1.5B--32B parameters), reasoning transfer is most reliable within a model family, yet remains effective across families once compression normalizes the trace. A Gaussian Process Bayesian optimization layer finds near-optimal model--budget configurations with $15$ evaluations rather than an exhaustive search over all $64$ pairs, reducing evaluation cost by $84\%$. These results show that reasoning quality, token budget, and model compatibility can be optimized jointly, making CoT-style reasoning more practical under realistic deployment constraints.

Chain-of-thought reasoning models such as DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-7B exhibit a bimodal convergence pattern: generations either terminate within a token budget (converged) or exhaust it without reaching a conclusion (non-converged). We characterize this phenomenon empirically, showing that converged generations achieve 90.3% accuracy on AIME 1983-2024 while non-converged ones achieve only 6.6%, with an overall convergence rate of 62.0%. We then ask whether this outcome is detectable early in the thinking chain using internal model representations. Training linear probes on hidden-state activations at token positions 50-300, we find that layer-20 activations at token 150 achieve AUC 0.608 (+-0.080, 5-fold CV), reliably above chance even at token 50. Activation probes consistently outperform behavioral baselines derived from token entropy and repetition statistics. A sweep-level permutation test yields p=0.063 (100,000 permutations), consistent with a modest signal that our sample size cannot confirm at conventional thresholds. These findings suggest that convergence fate is partially encoded in intermediate representations well before the generation ends, opening a path toward early-exit inference and adaptive compute allocation.

Large Language Models often achieve strong performance by generating long intermediate chain-of-thought reasoning. However, it remains unclear when a model's final answer is actually determined during generation. If the answer is already fixed at an intermediate stage, subsequent reasoning tokens may constitute post-decision explanation, increasing inference cost and latency without improving correctness. We study the evolution of predicted answers over reasoning steps using forced answer completion, which elicits the model's intermediate predictions at partial reasoning prefixes. Focusing on Qwen3-4B and averaging results across all datasets considered, we find that predicted answers change in only 32% of queries. Moreover, once the final answer switch occurs, the model generates an average of 760 additional reasoning tokens per query, accounting for a substantial fraction of the total reasoning budget. Motivated by these findings, we investigate early stopping strategies that halt generation once the answer has stabilized. We show that simple heuristics, including probe-based stopping, can reduce reasoning token usage by 500 tokens per query while incurring only a 2% drop in accuracy. Together, our results indicate that a large portion of chain-of-thought generation is redundant and can be reduced with minimal impact on performance.