Explainable Knowledge Tracing via Probabilistic Embeddings and Pattern-based Reasoning
Authors: Siyu Wu, Cong Xu, Wei Zhang
Organizations: 1Shanghai Institute of AI Education, East China Normal University, Shanghai, 200241, China · 2Shool of Computer Sicence and Technology, East China Normal University, Shanghai, 200241, China
Abstract
Knowledge Tracing (KT) models students' knowledge states based on learning interactions to predict performance. While deep learning-based KT models have boosted predictive accuracy, most models rely on deterministic vector embeddings and opaque latent state transitions, limiting interpretability regarding how specific past behaviors influence predictions. To address this limitation, we propose Probabilistic Logical Knowledge Tracing (PLKT), an interpretable KT framework that formulates prediction as a goal-conditioned evidence reasoning process over historical learning behaviors. Instead of representing knowledge states as deterministic vector embeddings, PLKT employs robust Beta-distributed probabilistic embeddings to represent student knowledge states. This probabilistic foundation allows us to model the uncertainty of historical behaviors and perform explicit logical operations (e.g., conjunction), constructing transparent reasoning paths that reveal how specific past interactions contribute to the prediction. Extensive experiments show that PLKT outperforms state-of-the-art KT methods while achieving superior interpretability. Our code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/PLKT-D3CE/.
Knowledge tracing (KT) aims to predict students' future performance by modeling their evolving knowledge states from historical interactions. Existing KT methods usually treat the raw interaction sequence as a unified behavioral process, overlooking the phase-specific nature of learning behaviors. Our preliminary observations show that students are more likely to correctly answer previously failed knowledge concepts after sufficient practice, suggesting a transition from ability-building to proficiency-oriented learning. Motivated by this, we propose Phase-Aware Knowledge Tracing (PAKT), a KT framework that decomposes student interactions into ability and proficiency phases based on the tailored decomposition mechanism. To effectively exploit the decomposed sequences, we design a multi-branch Transformer with a type-aware readout module to jointly capture phase-specific and holistic knowledge states. We further provide a causal analysis to reveal the confounding bias caused by entangling complex learning behaviors in phase-agnostic KT models. Extensive experiments on six public benchmarks demonstrate that our method consistently outperforms representative baselines, with a maximum AUC gain of 1.33% and an average gain of 0.82%.
Knowledge Tracing (KT) aims to model student's knowledge state and predict future performance to enable personalized learning in Intelligent Tutoring Systems. However, traditional KT methods face fundamental limitations in explainability, as they rely solely on the response correctness, neglecting the rich information embedded in students' problem-solving processes. To address this gap, we propose Knowledge Tracing Leveraging Problem-Solving Process (KT-PSP), which incorporates students' problem-solving processes to capture the multidimensional aspects of mathematical proficiency. We also introduce KT-PSP-25, a new dataset specifically designed for KT-PSP. Building on this, we present StatusKT, a KT framework that employs a teacher-student-teacher three-stage LLM pipeline to extract students' Mathematical Proficiency (MP) as intermediate representation. In this pipeline, the teacher LLM first extracts problem-specific proficiency indicators, then a student LLM generates responses based on the student's solution process, and a teacher LLM evaluates these responses to determine mastery of each indicator. The experimental results on KT-PSP-25 demonstrate that StatusKT improves the prediction performance of existing KT methods. Moreover, StatusKT provides interpretable explanations for its predictions by explicitly modeling students' mathematical proficiency. Code is available \href{https://github.com/jungyangpark/KT-PSP-25}{here}.
Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have led to the development of AI-powered tutoring systems that provide interactive support via dialogue. To enable these tutoring systems to provide personalized support, it is essential to assess student performance at each turn, motivating knowledge tracing (KT) in dialogue settings. However, existing dialogue-based KT approaches often ignore question difficulty modeling and rely on opaque latent representations from LLMs, hindering accurate and interpretable prediction. In this work, we propose an interpretable difficulty-aware conversational KT framework built upon LLMs, which explicitly models students' abilities and the difficulty of tutor-posed tasks at each turn. The framework incorporates the original textual question and the next tutor-posed task to estimate the student's knowledge state and the difficulty of the upcoming turn. Furthermore, it integrates Item Response Theory to map LLM's outputs into student ability and question difficulty parameters, enabling interpretable prediction of student performance grounded in cognitive theories of learning. We evaluate the framework on two tutor-student dialogue datasets. Both quantitative and qualitative results show that our framework outperforms existing KT baselines, meanwhile generating interpretable outputs consistent with cognitive theory.