V4FinBench: Benchmarking Tabular Foundation Models, LLMs, and Standard Methods on Corporate Bankruptcy Prediction
Authors: Marcin Kostrzewa, Sebastian Tomczak, Roman Furman, Anna Poberezhna, Michał Furgała, Julia Farganus, Oleksii Furman, Maciej Zięba
Organizations: Department of Artificial Intelligence, Wrocław University of Science and Technology, Poland · Opera, Wrocław, Poland · Tooploox, Wrocław, Poland
Abstract
Corporate bankruptcy prediction is a high-stakes financial task characterized by severe class imbalance and multi-horizon forecasting demands. Public datasets supporting it remain scarce and small: widely used free benchmarks contain between 6,000 and 80,000 company-year observations, while larger resources are behind subscription paywalls. To address this gap, we introduce V4FinBench, a benchmark of over one million company-year records from the Visegràd Group (V4) economies (2006-2021), with 131 financial and non-financial features, six prediction horizons, and a composite distress criterion jointly capturing solvency, profitability, and liquidity deterioration. V4FinBench is designed to support the evaluation of tabular and foundation-model methods under realistic class imbalance, with positive rates between 0.19% and 0.36%. We provide reference evaluations of standard tabular baselines, finetuned TabPFN, and QLoRA-finetuned Llama-3-8B. With imbalance-aware finetuning, TabPFN matches or exceeds gradient boosting at longer time horizons on both F1-score and ROC-AUC. In contrast, Llama-3-8B trails gradient boosting on ROC-AUC at every horizon and is generally weaker on F1-score, with the gap widening sharply beyond the immediate horizon. In an external evaluation on the American Bankruptcy Dataset, the V4FinBench-finetuned TabPFN checkpoint improves over vanilla TabPFN, suggesting that adaptation captures transferable financial-distress structure rather than only V4-specific patterns. V4FinBench is publicly released to support further evaluation and development of prediction methods on realistic financial data.
Tabular data dominate the landscape of data science, increasingly attracting innovative machine learning models and tailored benchmarks. Yet, little is known for enterprise data, where tables constitute the backbone of business operations. To broaden the benchmarking landscape for business applications, this work aims to actualize the characteristics of enterprise data by providing an analysis of data statistics and performance measurements of tabular models such as TabPFN, TabICL and ConTextTab. Through our analysis, we find enterprise data markedly differ from tabular benchmarks and we demonstrate that a tabular model that performs well on typical tabular benchmarks may perform poorly on real world enterprise data -- and vice versa. This lack of generalization underlines the need for additional benchmarks with enterprise-grade characteristics.
Myung Jun Kim, Maximilian Schambach, Frank Essenberger +2
Large language models are becoming increasingly significant in financial applications. Nevertheless, prevailing benchmarks are largely dependent on simulated or generic data, which leads to a significant gap between reported performance and actual efficacy in real-world scenarios. To tackle this challenge, we present BizFinBench.v2, the first integrated offline and online benchmark built upon authentic user query-response data from both Chinese and U.S. equity markets. It comprises 28,860 questions across eight offline and two online tasks. Experimental results show that GPT-5 achieves a mere 61.5% accuracy, still failing to meet the practical business requirement (84.8%). Among the evaluated commercial models, DeepSeek-R1 exhibits superior investment efficacy. Error analysis grounded in real financial practice reveals persistent limitations in existing models. By overcoming the constraints of prior benchmarks, BizFinBench.v2 provides a substantiated foundation for advancing LLM deployment in the financial sector. Our data and code are available at https://github.com/HiThink-Research/BizFinBench.v2.
Imbalanced learning remains a fundamental challenge in tabular data applications. Despite decades of research and numerous proposed algorithms, a systematic empirical understanding of how different imbalanced learning methods behave across diverse data characteristics is still lacking. In particular, it remains unclear how different method families compare in predictive performance, robustness under varying data characteristics, and computational scalability. In this work, we present Tabular Imbalanced Learning Benchmark (TILBench), a large-scale empirical benchmark for tabular imbalanced learning. TILBench evaluates more than 40 representative algorithms across 57 diverse tabular datasets, resulting in over 200000 controlled experiments across a wide range of data characteristics. Our findings show that no single method consistently dominates across all settings; instead, the effectiveness of imbalanced learning methods depends strongly on dataset characteristics and computational constraints. Based on these findings, we provide practical recommendations for selecting appropriate methods in real-world applications.