Unpacking the Eye of the Beholder: Social Location, Identity, and the Moving Target of Political Perspectives

This paper presents a computational case study that evaluates the capabilities of specialized machine learning models and emerging multimodal large language models for Visual Political Communication (VPC) analysis. Focusing on concentrated visibility in Instagram stories and posts during the 2021 German federal election campaign, we compare the performance of traditional computer vision models (FaceNet512, RetinaFace, Google Cloud Vision) with a multimodal large language model (GPT-4o) in identifying front-runner politicians and counting individuals in images. GPT-4o outperformed the other models, achieving a macro F1-score of 0.89 for face recognition and 0.86 for person counting in stories. These findings demonstrate the potential of advanced AI systems to scale and refine visual content analysis in political communication while highlighting methodological considerations for future research.

We ask whether topic sentiment has a causal effect on perceived political ideology, and whether the answer depends on who assigns the ideology label. Using articles from AllSides, paired with shared sentiment annotations from Llama-3.3-70b-versatile, we compare ideology labels from expert human annotators, GPT-4o-mini (baseline and finetuned), and Llama-3.3-70B. We apply Double Machine Learning (DML) and mediation analysis across all four annotation paradigms. Zero-shot LLMs regularly inflate effect sizes relative to human annotations, while fine-tuning often attenuates them back toward the human scale. Our results have implications for the use of LLM annotations as silver labels and as proxies for human judgment in downstream causal analyses: they may be reliable for recovering the presence and direction of effects on the partisan topics, but not their magnitude, leading to over- or under-prediction of some ideology given particular topics.

The rapid growth of social media has created vast amounts of political discourse, which provides valuable opportunities to analyze public opinions and identify different political perspectives. Sentiment Analysis (SA) is a core task in Natural Language Processing (NLP) that allows the computational study of attitudes and opinions in textual data, and has become increasingly important for understanding political discourse. In this work, we investigate multiclass sentiment analysis of political view- points on social media, that is to automatically discriminate multiple sentiment classes over political issues and figures. To solve this task we design and evaluate two machine-learning approaches based on XGBoost and BERT. We train and evaluate the models on a labeled dataset of political social media posts using standard classification metrics. The experimental results show that the XGBoost model reaches an F1-score of 0.2835 and the BERT- based model reaches an F1-score of 0.2806 on the test set. These results demonstrate the challenge of classifying complex and contextualized political discourse sentiment and provide a baseline for future research in multiclass political sentiment analysis.