Organizations: University of Science and Technology of China · Alibaba Group · National University of Singapore
Abstract
The performance of Large Language Models (LLMs) on downstream tasks is fundamentally constrained by the capabilities acquired during pre-training. However, traditional benchmarks like MMLU often fail to reflect a base model's plasticity in complex open-ended scenarios, leading to inefficient model selection. We address this by introducing a new task of predicting post-training potential - forecasting a base model's performance before post-training. We propose RuDE (Rubric-based Discriminative Evaluation), a unified framework that bypasses the generation gap of base models by leveraging response discrimination. Guided by our systematic 4C Taxonomy, RuDE constructs controlled contrastive pairs across diverse domains by fine-grained rubric violations. Extensive experiments demonstrate a correlation greater than 90% with post-training performance. Crucially, validation via Reinforcement Learning (RL) confirms that RuDE effectively identifies high-potential smaller models that outperform larger counterparts, offering a compute-efficient mechanism for foundation model development.
With the rapid progress of large language models (LLMs), reliably evaluating the capabilities of pre-trained LLMs has become increasingly important. The challenge is that base pre-trained models are optimized for next-token prediction and often fail to follow instructions or produce well-formed answers under standard prompting and direct decoding. As a result, benchmark performance can conflate model capability with decoding-induced failures to produce task-oriented outputs, while exposing such behavior often relies on costly post-training. Recent decodingonly approaches attempt to reshape output distributions, but such methods can be inefficient and brittle across open-ended tasks. To address these limitations, we propose Energy-Based Decoding (EBD), a training-free, reward-guided framework for activating task-oriented behaviors from frozen pre-trained LLMs across both open-ended and objective tasks. EBD augments decoding with an external lightweight reward model, steering generations toward high-utility responses while anchoring them to the pre-trained model prior through a reward-tilted target distribution. We show that EBD shifts base-model outputs toward more instructionfollowing behavior, increasing behavioral similarity to post-trained counterparts and enabling a fairer inference-time evaluation of accessible pre-trained-model behavior. Empirically, EBD outperforms baselines across five models and six benchmarks, improving Qwen3-8B-Base on AlpacaEval2.0 from 8.8 to 44.5, reducing Mistral-7B Math500 latency by 18.9x relative to prior decoding work, and remaining robust to reward-model size.
Reinforcement learning (RL) has become central to improving large language models (LLMs) on complex reasoning tasks, yet RL post-training is largely studied in isolation from the pretraining that precedes it. As a result, two basic questions remain open: (1) how do pretraining choices (model size, data) shape the returns to RL compute, and (2) what does RL actually do to the model? These questions are difficult to study in the standard LLM setting: pretraining corpora are vast and uncontrolled, making it hard to attribute behaviors to pretraining versus RL, and systematic compute sweeps across both stages are prohibitively expensive. To address these challenges, we use chess as a controlled testbed for studying reasoning across the full pretraining-to-post-training pipeline. We follow the standard LLM training pipeline by pretraining language models from 5M to 1B parameters on human chess games, supervised fine-tuning on synthetic reasoning traces, and running RL on chess puzzles with verifiable rewards. Using this framework, we find that the post-RL performance at given RL compute level is well-predicted from the pretraining loss, and slope of the RL reward curves improves approximately linearly with the pretraining tokens. Beyond scaling, we find that RL does not simply sharpen the SFT policy: on easy puzzles it amplifies correct moves the SFT policy already preferred, while on hard puzzles it surfaces correct moves that were nearly absent under SFT. We further test whether our findings transfer beyond chess by training a 1B language model on math-domain text, where the same predictive pattern emerges: longer-pretrained checkpoints reach higher post-RL performance and improve faster under RL. In sum, we provide a quantitative account of the pretraining-to-RL interface and a controlled testbed for studying the science of reasoning across the full pretraining-to-post-training pipeline.
Reinforcement learning (RL)-based post-training often improves the reasoning performance of large language models (LLMs) beyond the training domain, while supervised fine-tuning (SFT) frequently leads to general capabilities forgetting. However, the mechanisms underlying this contrast remain unclear. To bridge this gap, we present a feature-level mechanistic analysis methodology to probe RL generalization using a controlled experimental setup, where RL- and SFT-tuned models are trained from the same base model on identical data. Leveraging our interpretability framework, we align internal activations across models within a shared feature space and analyze how features evolve during post-training. We find that SFT rapidly introduces many highly specialized features that stabilize early in training, whereas RL induces more restrained and continually evolving feature changes that largely preserve base models' representations. Focusing on samples where RL succeeds but the base model fails, we identify a compact, task-agnostic set of features that directly mediate generalization across diverse tasks. Feature-level interventions confirm their causal role: disabling these features significantly degrades RL models' generalization performance, while amplifying them improves base models' performance. The code is available at https://github.com/danshi777/RL-generalization.