cs.AIMay 13, 2026

Multimodal Hidden Markov Models for Persistent Emotional State Tracking

Authors: Anamika RaguAneesh Jonelagadda

Organizations: Kaliber AI, San Mateo, California, USA.

Abstract

Tracking an interpretable emotional arc of a conversation via the sentiment of individual utterances processed as a whole is central to both understanding and guiding communication in applied, especially clinical, conversational contexts. Existing approaches to emotion recognition operate at the utterance level, obscuring the persistent phases that characterize real conversational dynamics. We propose a lightweight framework that models conversational emotion as a sequence of latent emotional regimes using sticky factorial HDP-HMMs over multimodal valence-arousal representations derived from simultaneous video, audio and textual input. We evaluate the quality of regime prediction using LLM-as-a-Judge, geometric, and temporal consistency metrics, demonstrating that the sticky HDP-HMM produces more interpretable regime sequences than the baseline Gaussian HMM at a fraction of the computational cost of LLM-based dialogue state tracking methods. In addition, Question-Answer experiments in a clinical dataset suggest that meaningful emotional phases can reliably be recovered from multimodal valence-arousal trajectories and used to improve the quality of LLM responses in unstable affective regimes via context augmentation. This framework thus opens a path toward interpretable, lightweight, and actionable analysis of conversational emotion dynamics at scale.

Explore similar work

Aug 11, 2026cs.AI

Rationale-Guided Learning for Multimodal Emotion Recognition

Multimodal emotion recognition in conversation (MERC) requires understanding complex interactions between verbal and non-verbal cues. However, most existing approaches fundamentally treat this as a direct input-output (multimodal cues-emotion labels) mapping problem, overlooking the causal reasoning that humans use when interpreting emotions. We propose rationale-guided learning (RGL), a novel framework that transforms MERC into a cognitively-inspired reasoning task. Based on dual-process theory, we decompose emotional reasoning into three facets: Intuitive (immediate perception, System 1), Contextual (situational analysis, System 2), and Integrative (synthesis of both). We leverage an MLLM offline to generate structured rationales, which are encoded as memories to guide model training via aligning internal representations with human-like reasoning patterns. Our final model operates without any MLLM overheads at inference time. Experimental results show that RGL achieves state-of-the-art performance on the IEMOCAP and MELD benchmarks. Further, for interpretation, we demonstrate that the model's internal features effectively retrieve semantically correct rationales for unseen test samples, validating its rationale reasoning capabilities.
Sujung Oh, Jung Uk Kim, Sangmin Lee
Apr 25, 2026cs.CV

EmoTrans: A Benchmark for Understanding, Reasoning, and Predicting Emotion Transitions in Multimodal LLMs

Recent multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have shown strong capabilities in perception, reasoning, and generation, and are increasingly used in applications such as social robots and human-computer interaction, where understanding human emotions is essential. However, existing benchmarks mainly formulate emotion understanding as a static recognition problem, leaving it largely unclear whether current MLLMs can understand emotion as a dynamic process that evolves, shifts between states, and unfolds across diverse social contexts. To bridge this gap, we present EmoTrans, a benchmark for evaluating emotion dynamics understanding in multimodal videos. EmoTrans contains 1,000 carefully collected and manually annotated video clips, covering 12 real-world scenarios, and further provides over 3,000 task-specific question-answer (QA) pairs for fine-grained evaluation. The benchmark introduces four tasks, namely Emotion Change Detection (ECD), Emotion State Identification (ESI), Emotion Transition Reasoning (ETR), and Next Emotion Prediction (NEP), forming a progressive evaluation framework from coarse-grained detection to deeper reasoning and prediction. We conduct a comprehensive evaluation of 18 state-of-the-art MLLMs on EmoTrans and obtain two main findings. First, although current MLLMs show relatively stronger performance on coarse-grained emotion change detection, they still struggle with fine-grained emotion dynamics modeling. Second, socially complex settings, especially multi-person scenarios, remain substantially challenging, while reasoning-oriented variants do not consistently yield clear improvements. To facilitate future research, we publicly release the benchmark, evaluation protocol, and code at https://github.com/Emo-gml/EmoTrans.
He Hu, Tengjin Weng, Zebang Cheng +5
May 21, 2026cs.CV

Two-Stage Multimodal Framework for Emotion Mimicry Intensity Prediction

We present our submission to the Hume-ABAW10 Emotional Mimicry Intensity (EMI) Challenge, which aims to predict six continuous emotion intensity dimensions: Admiration, Amusement, Determination, Empathic Pain, Excitement, and Joy, from in-the-wild multimodal video clips. We propose a staged multimodal framework that combines textual, acoustic, and visual representations, with an optional motion branch. Our approach first trains modality-specific encoders independently and then fuses their learned representations through a lightweight regressor with modality dropout and controlled encoder adaptation. Across our submitted systems, the best validation performance is obtained by the text--audio--vision--motion fusion model under the expanded 4:1 split, achieving an average Pearson correlation of 0.4722. Although the motion branch yields only very slight gains, its behavior can be interesting to study. Our team was placed third in the EMI challenge, achieving an average Pearson correlation of 0.57 for the test set. Overall, we provide a practical and reproducible baseline for EMI prediction.
Dinithi Dissanayake, Shaveen Silva, Ovindu Atukorala +2