Strikingness-Aware Evaluation for Temporal Knowledge Graph Reasoning
Authors: Rikui Huang, Shengzhe Zhang, Wei Wei
Organizations: School of Computer Science & Technology, Huazhong University of Science and Technology · Institute of Artificial Intelligence, Huazhong University of Science and Technology · School of Artificial Intelligence & Automation, Huazhong University of Science and Technology
Abstract
Temporal Knowledge Graph Reasoning (TKGR) aims at inferring missing (especially future) events from historical data. Current evaluation in TKGR uniformly weights all events, ignoring that most are trivial repetitions, which overestimate the true reasoning ability. Therefore, the rare outstanding events, whose prediction demands deeper reasoning, should be distinguished and emphasized. To this end, we propose a strikingness-aware evaluation framework, which introduces a rule-based strikingness measuring framework (RSMF) to quantify event strikingness by comparing its expected occurrence with peer events derived from temporal rules. Strikingness is then integrated as a weighting factor into metrics like weighted MRR and Hits@k. Experiments on four TKG benchmarks reveal: 1) All representative models perform worse as event strikingness increases, 2) Path-based methods excel on low-strikingness events and representation-based ones on high-strikingness events, 3) We design an ensemble method whose gains stem from fitting trivial events rather than reasoning improvement. Our framework provides a more rigorous evaluation, refocusing the field on predicting outstanding events.
Temporal Knowledge Graph (TKG) reasoning under the extrapolation setting focuses on forecasting future time-stamped events (facts) from historical data in a temporal knowledge graph. Existing approaches, reinforcement learning (RL)-based multi-hop reasoning methods are prominent for TKG reasoning because they produce human-interpretable predictions via explicit multi-hop path tracing. However, during RL training, rewards are typically sparse, and exploration is highly inefficient due to the vast, time-evolving action space. These issues hinder efficient training and often limit overall performance. To address these challenges, we propose RAPTOR (Reachability-Aware Pretraining for Efficient Target-Oriented Path Exploration), a self-supervised pretraining method that injects a reachability-aware inductive bias to the agent. By learning to estimate the reachability of candidate actions to the target entity, RAPTOR reduces exploration over unpromising paths and provides a strong initialization for downstream RL fine-tuning. Experimental results on the ICEWS14, ICEWS05-15, and ICEWS18 datasets demonstrate that RAPTOR pretraining markedly improves the training efficiency and consistently outperforms conventional baselines, establishing it as an effective approach for enhancing RL-based multi-hop reasoning methods for TKG reasoning.
Temporal knowledge graphs (TKGs) represent time-stamped relational facts and support a wide range of reasoning tasks over evolving events. However, existing methods produce entity representations that are static at the entity level, in that each representation is a function of learned parameters only and retains no trace of the interactions in which the entity has participated. In this paper, we depart from this static view and propose that each entity be modeled as an adaptive process whose representation is refined every time the entity participates in a fact. To this end, we propose AdaTKG, which maintains a per-entity memory that is updated with every observed interaction, with the memory accumulating online and predictions improving as more interactions arrive. Specifically, we instantiate the memory update as a learnable exponential moving average governed by a single shared scalar instead of using learnable parameters for each entity, enabling AdaTKG to handle entities unseen during training. Extensive experiments confirm consistent gains over TKG baselines, demonstrating the effectiveness of adaptive memory. Code is available at: https://github.com/seunghan96/AdaTKG
Temporal Knowledge Graphs (TKGs) record how facts evolve over time, but forecasting future events on a TKG remains difficult for three reasons: (i) long-range temporal dependencies are hard to encode; (ii) events on different chains mutually excite or inhibit one another in ways that snapshot-level models cannot express; and (iii) inter-arrival times are heavy-tailed and statistically sparse, so deterministic time predictors are unreliable. We address these three issues with a single framework, the \textbf{Group Attention Neural Hawkes Process (GAttNHP)}, built around three matched components. First, a self-attention encoder casts each subject--relation chain as a continuous-time point process and captures the lingering excitation of distant history. Second, a semantic soft-grouping module turns globally learnable Hawkes priors into an analytical cross-attention mask, so chains share excitation patterns through their latent group memberships rather than through exhaustive pairwise computation. Third, a Non-Crossing Quantile (NCQ) regression head replaces mean-based time prediction, providing calibrated, monotonically ordered quantile estimates that remain stable under heavy-tailed inter-arrival distributions. On six benchmark TKG datasets, GAttNHP improves over state-of-the-art baselines on both entity prediction and time prediction, and ablations confirm that its largest gains arise on the long-tail event chains where existing models fail most severely.