Safe Bayesian Optimization for Uncertain Correlation Matrices in Linear Models of Co-Regionalization

Bayesian optimization routinely warm-starts a target experiment with data from related source tasks, and the multi-task Gaussian process is the textbook surrogate for the job. We revisit this default in a controlled setting and find that it misestimates the cross-task correlation even in the simplest non-trivial case, affinely related source and target tasks, where a working transfer learning method should obviously succeed. We trace the failure to two independent structural mechanisms. Per-task standardization, the textbook fix for the affine slice ambiguity, propagates a finite-sample alignment error into the recovered correlation. The marginal likelihood itself identifies the correlation only at a per-sample rate that a Gaussian process at non-overlapping designs further dilutes. We propose three conservative remedies that follow from the analysis: promoting per-task means and scales to model parameters, restricting the task covariance to non-negative correlations, and co-locating part of the source and target designs. Across synthetic multi-task problems and surrogate-based hyperparameter tuning transfer, these remedies recover the target-only baseline on the simple instances, while the broader failure persists on harder instances and across most rank-based and latent-context variants.

Modern Bayesian optimization and adaptive sampling methods increasingly rely on nonlinear parametric models, yet theoretical guarantees for such models under adaptive data collection remain limited. Existing analyses largely focus on Gaussian processes, kernel machines, linear models, or linearized neural approximations, leaving a gap between theory and the nonlinear models used in practice. We develop a kernel based framework for analyzing regularized nonlinear parametric models trained on adaptively collected data. Our approach uses kernels over the parameter space to induce reproducing kernel Hilbert space structures over the corresponding model class, yielding confidence bounds for models trained with broad classes of regularized convex losses. We show how these bounds can support convergence guarantees for nonlinear acquisition and surrogate models, including randomized regularized policies that select points by maximizing a trained random model. These results provide a unified route to analyzing nonlinear parametric models in Bayesian optimization and related adaptive optimization settings.

We study the multi-task linear regression problem in the presence of contaminated tasks. We address the setting where the unknown parameters of a majority of tasks are close in the $\ell_2$-norm, while a fraction of tasks are arbitrary outliers. Existing theoretical frameworks for this problem rely heavily on the assumption that the empirical second moment of each task has a minimum eigenvalue bounded away from zero (order $Ω(1)$). Crucially, this assumption fails in many high-dimensional scenarios, rendering prior guarantees vacuous. To overcome this limitation, we propose an estimator based on matrix-weighted norm regularization. We also introduce a relative balancedness condition, quantified by a balancedness constant, that compares each task's second moment with the average inlier geometry and relaxes the need for taskwise second-moment lower bounds. In favorable regimes with moderate balancedness, our prediction MSE bounds match the rate of Duan and Wang (2023) under substantially weaker spectral assumptions; the resulting task-overall MSE is minimax optimal up to logarithmic factors. Furthermore, we demonstrate that our estimator enjoys a safety guarantee: when the relevant balancedness constant is large or infinite, or when tasks are unrelated, the method performs no worse than independent task learning.