GEM: Gaussian Evolution Model for Occupancy Forecasting and Motion Planning
Authors: Cheng Chen, Hao Huang, Saurabh Bagchi
Organizations: Purdue University · New York University Abu Dhabi
Abstract
Future 3D semantic occupancy forecasting and motion planning are central to autonomous driving, as they require models to reason about how surrounding scenes evolve and how the ego vehicle should act. Existing occupancy world models commonly discretize scenes into latent embeddings, volumetric features, or quantized tokens, and forecast future states through fixed-step autoregressive generation. This limits temporal flexibility, obscures scene evolution, accumulates errors over long horizons, and poorly matches the continuous-time dynamics of real driving scenes. We propose GEM, a Gaussian Evolution Model for non-autoregressive occupancy world modeling, where driving scenes are represented as explicit continuous 4D Gaussian primitives with learned dynamics. Instead of rolling out future occupancy states step by step, GEM directly queries the Gaussian world representation at arbitrary timestamps and splats the corresponding conditional 3D Gaussians into semantic occupancy volumes. This enables efficient forecasting over the full horizon while retaining a compact and interpretable scene representation. By decoupling spatial geometry, temporal support, and primitive motion, GEM makes the predicted world easier to inspect, as each primitive's evolution can be followed continuously over time. The same representation also supports motion planning by predicting future ego trajectories from the learned Gaussian world. Extensive experiments show that GEM achieves state-of-the-art future semantic occupancy forecasting and strong motion planning performance, while providing flexible temporal querying.
Vision-centric 3D occupancy prediction provides dense scene representations essential for autonomous driving and robotic navigation, yet existing methods struggle to scale to high voxel resolutions due to prohibitive computational costs. To address this, we introduce GaussianSeed, a progressive multi-scale Gaussian occupancy prediction framework that organizes primitives into a coarse-to-fine hierarchy. Benefiting from this hierarchical design, GaussianSeed effectively circumvents the memory bottlenecks inherent in dense representations, successfully scaling to a 0.1m spatial resolution while maintaining real-time inference capabilities. To comprehensively evaluate high-resolution geometric perception, we further construct TJScenes, a panoramic six-camera occupancy dataset with highly detailed 0.1m annotations. Extensive experiments on Occ3D-nuScenes and TJScenes demonstrate that GaussianSeed delivers the lowest latency among all evaluated methods while maintaining highly competitive accuracy, advancing the efficiency-quality frontier of high-resolution 3D occupancy prediction. Codes are available at https://github.com/Athameral/GUSD
Accurate 3D scene understanding is fundamental to embodied intelligence and autonomous driving, where 3D occupancy provides a unified representation of objects, structures, and free space. However, recovering such a complete volumetric representation from visual observations remains challenging, particularly in occluded and unobserved regions. Visual geometry priors offer strong and generalizable geometric cues for addressing this challenge, but their outputs are inherently surface-centric, whereas occupancy prediction requires reasoning about volumetric interiors and free space. To bridge this gap, we introduce GPOcc, which transforms visual geometry priors into occupancy-aware sparse Gaussian representations for efficient and expressive volumetric scene modeling. Building on GPOcc, GPOcc++ models multi-view observations and temporal sequences within a unified framework, allowing spatial and temporal evidence to be handled through the same representation. We further extend GPOcc++ from indoor scenes to outdoor occupancy prediction. Extensive experiments on both indoor and outdoor benchmarks demonstrate consistently strong performance across both multi-view and temporal settings, together with favorable efficiency and generalization. Code will be released at https://github.com/JuIvyy/GPOcc.
This letter proposes CascadeOcc, a novel occupancy world model that prioritizes intrinsic structural hierarchy over extrinsic auxiliary modalities for autonomous driving. Occupancy world models -- forecasting the future driving environment and planning the driving trajectory -- effectively bridge perception and planning, but current approaches often heavily rely on external modalities or large language models, failing to fully exploit the inherent structural potential of occupancy representations themselves. To enhance representational capacity for complex 3D scenes, we integrate a cascaded Vector Quantized (VQ) mechanism into an autoregressive framework. Following a coarse-to-fine principle, CascadeOcc progressively refines fine-grained details from global structures through a multi-scale architecture. Additionally, we incorporate a TimeMixer to capture multi-scale temporal dependencies, establishing a dual-hierarchy mechanism in both space and time. Experimental results on 4D occupancy forecasting and motion planning benchmarks demonstrate that CascadeOcc achieves superior performance among vision-centric approaches, validating that optimizing inherent representations is a powerful alternative to relying on external foundation models.